The cointegration and causality tests for tourism and trade in Malaysia
This paper examines the relationship between tourism and trade that might have evolved in the development of Malaysian economy by using cointegration and causality tests. All analyses have been conducted with quarterly data of international tourism receipts, exports, imports and total trade of Malay...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English English |
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Canadian Center of Science and Education
2010
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| Online Access: | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17037/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17037/1/The%20cointegration%20and%20causality%20tests%20for%20tourism%20and%20trade%20in%20Malaysia.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848843129409503232 |
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| author | Kadir, Norsiah Jusoff, Kamaruzaman |
| author_facet | Kadir, Norsiah Jusoff, Kamaruzaman |
| author_sort | Kadir, Norsiah |
| building | UPM Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | This paper examines the relationship between tourism and trade that might have evolved in the development of Malaysian economy by using cointegration and causality tests. All analyses have been conducted with quarterly data of international tourism receipts, exports, imports and total trade of Malaysia, over the period of 1995:1 through 2006:4. The results of the unit root tests indicate that the data are stationary in first-difference and not in level. The results of the JJ co integration test however, show that all the series are not cointegrated in the long run, hence, long-run equilibrium did not exist between all the series. Using Granger-causality tests the study found that there is one-way causal effect (unidirectional causality) running from exports to international tourism receipts at 5% significance level. The causality test also shows a one-way causal effect running from imports to international tourist receipts at 5% significance level and total trade to international tourism receipts at 10% significance level. This leads to a conclusion that increase in total trade, exports and imports will cause growth in the tourism sector, which means that most of tourist arrivals are related to business tourism. Therefore, to increase and sustain in the growth of tourism sector, future economic policy should focus more on tourism and trade related, in order to generate more foreign exchange earning to Malaysia |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T08:10:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | upm-17037 |
| institution | Universiti Putra Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T08:10:07Z |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publisher | Canadian Center of Science and Education |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | upm-170372015-09-28T00:11:22Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17037/ The cointegration and causality tests for tourism and trade in Malaysia Kadir, Norsiah Jusoff, Kamaruzaman This paper examines the relationship between tourism and trade that might have evolved in the development of Malaysian economy by using cointegration and causality tests. All analyses have been conducted with quarterly data of international tourism receipts, exports, imports and total trade of Malaysia, over the period of 1995:1 through 2006:4. The results of the unit root tests indicate that the data are stationary in first-difference and not in level. The results of the JJ co integration test however, show that all the series are not cointegrated in the long run, hence, long-run equilibrium did not exist between all the series. Using Granger-causality tests the study found that there is one-way causal effect (unidirectional causality) running from exports to international tourism receipts at 5% significance level. The causality test also shows a one-way causal effect running from imports to international tourist receipts at 5% significance level and total trade to international tourism receipts at 10% significance level. This leads to a conclusion that increase in total trade, exports and imports will cause growth in the tourism sector, which means that most of tourist arrivals are related to business tourism. Therefore, to increase and sustain in the growth of tourism sector, future economic policy should focus more on tourism and trade related, in order to generate more foreign exchange earning to Malaysia Canadian Center of Science and Education 2010 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17037/1/The%20cointegration%20and%20causality%20tests%20for%20tourism%20and%20trade%20in%20Malaysia.pdf Kadir, Norsiah and Jusoff, Kamaruzaman (2010) The cointegration and causality tests for tourism and trade in Malaysia. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2 (1). pp. 138-143. ISSN 1916-9728 http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/4951/4115 Tourism - Research Tourism - Economic aspects Cointegration English |
| spellingShingle | Tourism - Research Tourism - Economic aspects Cointegration Kadir, Norsiah Jusoff, Kamaruzaman The cointegration and causality tests for tourism and trade in Malaysia |
| title | The cointegration and causality tests for tourism and trade in Malaysia |
| title_full | The cointegration and causality tests for tourism and trade in Malaysia |
| title_fullStr | The cointegration and causality tests for tourism and trade in Malaysia |
| title_full_unstemmed | The cointegration and causality tests for tourism and trade in Malaysia |
| title_short | The cointegration and causality tests for tourism and trade in Malaysia |
| title_sort | cointegration and causality tests for tourism and trade in malaysia |
| topic | Tourism - Research Tourism - Economic aspects Cointegration |
| url | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17037/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17037/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17037/1/The%20cointegration%20and%20causality%20tests%20for%20tourism%20and%20trade%20in%20Malaysia.pdf |