Prediction of the start of next recession

The future value of the binary recession variable is modeled to be dependent on the present and past values of a set of m US economic variables selected from a pool of 14 variables via a conditional distribution which is derived from an -dimensional power-normal distribution. The mean together with...

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Main Authors: Pooi, Ah Hin *, Koh, You Beng
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Billion Brains 2016
Subjects:
Online Access:http://eprints.sunway.edu.my/431/
http://eprints.sunway.edu.my/431/1/Pooi%20Ah%20Hin%20Prediction%20of%20the%20start%20of%20next%20recession.pdf
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author Pooi, Ah Hin *
Koh, You Beng
author_facet Pooi, Ah Hin *
Koh, You Beng
author_sort Pooi, Ah Hin *
building SU Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description The future value of the binary recession variable is modeled to be dependent on the present and past values of a set of m US economic variables selected from a pool of 14 variables via a conditional distribution which is derived from an -dimensional power-normal distribution. The mean together with the 2.5% and 97.5% points of the conditional distribution are used to predict the start of the next US recession. When and , some of the models can provide fairly good indicators for the start of the next US recession.
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spelling sunway-4312019-03-13T03:30:51Z http://eprints.sunway.edu.my/431/ Prediction of the start of next recession Pooi, Ah Hin * Koh, You Beng HF5601 Accounting HG Finance The future value of the binary recession variable is modeled to be dependent on the present and past values of a set of m US economic variables selected from a pool of 14 variables via a conditional distribution which is derived from an -dimensional power-normal distribution. The mean together with the 2.5% and 97.5% points of the conditional distribution are used to predict the start of the next US recession. When and , some of the models can provide fairly good indicators for the start of the next US recession. Billion Brains 2016-03 Article PeerReviewed text en http://eprints.sunway.edu.my/431/1/Pooi%20Ah%20Hin%20Prediction%20of%20the%20start%20of%20next%20recession.pdf Pooi, Ah Hin * and Koh, You Beng (2016) Prediction of the start of next recession. Journal of Accounting, Finance and Economics, 6 (1). pp. 21-29. ISSN 2200-7970 http://www.jafepapers.com/uploads/2016/March/1462774381_2.%20Ah%20Hin.pdf
spellingShingle HF5601 Accounting
HG Finance
Pooi, Ah Hin *
Koh, You Beng
Prediction of the start of next recession
title Prediction of the start of next recession
title_full Prediction of the start of next recession
title_fullStr Prediction of the start of next recession
title_full_unstemmed Prediction of the start of next recession
title_short Prediction of the start of next recession
title_sort prediction of the start of next recession
topic HF5601 Accounting
HG Finance
url http://eprints.sunway.edu.my/431/
http://eprints.sunway.edu.my/431/
http://eprints.sunway.edu.my/431/1/Pooi%20Ah%20Hin%20Prediction%20of%20the%20start%20of%20next%20recession.pdf