When unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility
The public expects science to reduce or eliminate uncertainty (Kinzig & Starrett, 2003), yet scientific forecasts are probabilistic (at best) and it is simply not possible to make predictions with certainty. Whilst an ‘unlikely’ outcome is not expected to occur, an ‘unlikely’ outcome will still...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis
2018
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/49553/ |
| _version_ | 1848798023272890368 |
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| author | Jenkins, Sarah C. Harris, Adam J.L. Lark, Murray |
| author_facet | Jenkins, Sarah C. Harris, Adam J.L. Lark, Murray |
| author_sort | Jenkins, Sarah C. |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | The public expects science to reduce or eliminate uncertainty (Kinzig & Starrett, 2003), yet scientific forecasts are probabilistic (at best) and it is simply not possible to make predictions with certainty. Whilst an ‘unlikely’ outcome is not expected to occur, an ‘unlikely’ outcome will still occur one in five times (based on a translation of 20%, e.g. Theil, 2002), according to a frequentist perspective. When an ‘unlikely’ outcome does occur, the prediction may be deemed ‘erroneous’, reflecting a misunderstanding of the nature of uncertainty. Such misunderstandings could have ramifications for the subsequent (perceived) credibility of the communicator who made such a prediction. We examine whether the effect of ‘erroneous’ predictions on perceived credibility differs according to the communication format used. Specifically, we consider verbal, numerical (point and range [wide / narrow]) and mixed format probability expressions. We consistently find that subsequent perceptions are least affected by the ‘erroneous’ prediction when it is expressed numerically, regardless of whether it is a point or range estimate. Our findings suggest numbers should be used in consequential risk communications regarding ‘unlikely’ events, wherever possible. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T20:13:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-49553 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T20:13:10Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-495532019-09-01T04:30:15Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/49553/ When unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility Jenkins, Sarah C. Harris, Adam J.L. Lark, Murray The public expects science to reduce or eliminate uncertainty (Kinzig & Starrett, 2003), yet scientific forecasts are probabilistic (at best) and it is simply not possible to make predictions with certainty. Whilst an ‘unlikely’ outcome is not expected to occur, an ‘unlikely’ outcome will still occur one in five times (based on a translation of 20%, e.g. Theil, 2002), according to a frequentist perspective. When an ‘unlikely’ outcome does occur, the prediction may be deemed ‘erroneous’, reflecting a misunderstanding of the nature of uncertainty. Such misunderstandings could have ramifications for the subsequent (perceived) credibility of the communicator who made such a prediction. We examine whether the effect of ‘erroneous’ predictions on perceived credibility differs according to the communication format used. Specifically, we consider verbal, numerical (point and range [wide / narrow]) and mixed format probability expressions. We consistently find that subsequent perceptions are least affected by the ‘erroneous’ prediction when it is expressed numerically, regardless of whether it is a point or range estimate. Our findings suggest numbers should be used in consequential risk communications regarding ‘unlikely’ events, wherever possible. Taylor & Francis 2018-03-01 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/49553/1/Credibility_Format_Final_Online.pdf Jenkins, Sarah C., Harris, Adam J.L. and Lark, Murray (2018) When unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility. Journal of Risk Research . ISSN 1466-4461 verbal probability expressions; numerical probabilities; risk communication; trust; expertise; credibility https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13669877.2018.1440415 doi:10.1080/13669877.2018.1440415 doi:10.1080/13669877.2018.1440415 |
| spellingShingle | verbal probability expressions; numerical probabilities; risk communication; trust; expertise; credibility Jenkins, Sarah C. Harris, Adam J.L. Lark, Murray When unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility |
| title | When unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility |
| title_full | When unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility |
| title_fullStr | When unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility |
| title_full_unstemmed | When unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility |
| title_short | When unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility |
| title_sort | when unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility |
| topic | verbal probability expressions; numerical probabilities; risk communication; trust; expertise; credibility |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/49553/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/49553/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/49553/ |