Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming–simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-indus...
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| Format: | Article |
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European Geosciences Union
2017
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/48771/ |
| _version_ | 1848797842173329408 |
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| author | Frieler, Katja Lange, Stefan Piontek, Franziska Reyer, Christopher P.O. Schewe, Jacob Warszawski, Lila Zhao, Fang Chini, Louise Denvil, Sebastien Emanuel, Kerry Geiger, Tobias Halladay, Kate Hurtt, George Mengel, Matthias Murakami, Daisuke Ostberg, Sebastian Popp, Alexander Riva, Riccardo Stevanovic, Miodrag Suzuki, Tatsuo Volkholz, Jan Burke, Eleanor Ciais, Philippe Ebi, Kristie Eddy, Tyler D. Elliott, Joshua Galbraith, Eric Gosling, Simon N. Hattermann, Fred Hickler, Thomas Hinkel, Jochen Hof, Christian Huber, Veronika Jägermeyr, Jonas Krysanova, Valentina Marcé, Rafael Müller Schmied, Hannes Mouratiadou, Ioanna Pierson, Don Tittensor, Derek P. Vautard, Robert van Vliet, Michelle Biber, Matthias F. Betts, Richard A. Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Deryng, Delphine Frolking, Steve Jones, Chris D. Lotze, Heike K. Lotze-Campen, Hermann Sahajpal, Ritvik Thonicke, Kirsten Tian, Hanqin Yamagata, Yoshiki |
| author_facet | Frieler, Katja Lange, Stefan Piontek, Franziska Reyer, Christopher P.O. Schewe, Jacob Warszawski, Lila Zhao, Fang Chini, Louise Denvil, Sebastien Emanuel, Kerry Geiger, Tobias Halladay, Kate Hurtt, George Mengel, Matthias Murakami, Daisuke Ostberg, Sebastian Popp, Alexander Riva, Riccardo Stevanovic, Miodrag Suzuki, Tatsuo Volkholz, Jan Burke, Eleanor Ciais, Philippe Ebi, Kristie Eddy, Tyler D. Elliott, Joshua Galbraith, Eric Gosling, Simon N. Hattermann, Fred Hickler, Thomas Hinkel, Jochen Hof, Christian Huber, Veronika Jägermeyr, Jonas Krysanova, Valentina Marcé, Rafael Müller Schmied, Hannes Mouratiadou, Ioanna Pierson, Don Tittensor, Derek P. Vautard, Robert van Vliet, Michelle Biber, Matthias F. Betts, Richard A. Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Deryng, Delphine Frolking, Steve Jones, Chris D. Lotze, Heike K. Lotze-Campen, Hermann Sahajpal, Ritvik Thonicke, Kirsten Tian, Hanqin Yamagata, Yoshiki |
| author_sort | Frieler, Katja |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity). |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T20:10:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-48771 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T20:10:18Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | European Geosciences Union |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-487712020-05-04T19:19:49Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/48771/ Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming–simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) Frieler, Katja Lange, Stefan Piontek, Franziska Reyer, Christopher P.O. Schewe, Jacob Warszawski, Lila Zhao, Fang Chini, Louise Denvil, Sebastien Emanuel, Kerry Geiger, Tobias Halladay, Kate Hurtt, George Mengel, Matthias Murakami, Daisuke Ostberg, Sebastian Popp, Alexander Riva, Riccardo Stevanovic, Miodrag Suzuki, Tatsuo Volkholz, Jan Burke, Eleanor Ciais, Philippe Ebi, Kristie Eddy, Tyler D. Elliott, Joshua Galbraith, Eric Gosling, Simon N. Hattermann, Fred Hickler, Thomas Hinkel, Jochen Hof, Christian Huber, Veronika Jägermeyr, Jonas Krysanova, Valentina Marcé, Rafael Müller Schmied, Hannes Mouratiadou, Ioanna Pierson, Don Tittensor, Derek P. Vautard, Robert van Vliet, Michelle Biber, Matthias F. Betts, Richard A. Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Deryng, Delphine Frolking, Steve Jones, Chris D. Lotze, Heike K. Lotze-Campen, Hermann Sahajpal, Ritvik Thonicke, Kirsten Tian, Hanqin Yamagata, Yoshiki In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity). European Geosciences Union 2017-11-30 Article PeerReviewed Frieler, Katja, Lange, Stefan, Piontek, Franziska, Reyer, Christopher P.O., Schewe, Jacob, Warszawski, Lila, Zhao, Fang, Chini, Louise, Denvil, Sebastien, Emanuel, Kerry, Geiger, Tobias, Halladay, Kate, Hurtt, George, Mengel, Matthias, Murakami, Daisuke, Ostberg, Sebastian, Popp, Alexander, Riva, Riccardo, Stevanovic, Miodrag, Suzuki, Tatsuo, Volkholz, Jan, Burke, Eleanor, Ciais, Philippe, Ebi, Kristie, Eddy, Tyler D., Elliott, Joshua, Galbraith, Eric, Gosling, Simon N., Hattermann, Fred, Hickler, Thomas, Hinkel, Jochen, Hof, Christian, Huber, Veronika, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Krysanova, Valentina, Marcé, Rafael, Müller Schmied, Hannes, Mouratiadou, Ioanna, Pierson, Don, Tittensor, Derek P., Vautard, Robert, van Vliet, Michelle, Biber, Matthias F., Betts, Richard A., Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Deryng, Delphine, Frolking, Steve, Jones, Chris D., Lotze, Heike K., Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Sahajpal, Ritvik, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin and Yamagata, Yoshiki (2017) Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming–simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). Geoscientific Model Development, 10 (12). pp. 4321-4345. ISSN 1991-9603 https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/4321/2017/ doi:10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017 doi:10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017 |
| spellingShingle | Frieler, Katja Lange, Stefan Piontek, Franziska Reyer, Christopher P.O. Schewe, Jacob Warszawski, Lila Zhao, Fang Chini, Louise Denvil, Sebastien Emanuel, Kerry Geiger, Tobias Halladay, Kate Hurtt, George Mengel, Matthias Murakami, Daisuke Ostberg, Sebastian Popp, Alexander Riva, Riccardo Stevanovic, Miodrag Suzuki, Tatsuo Volkholz, Jan Burke, Eleanor Ciais, Philippe Ebi, Kristie Eddy, Tyler D. Elliott, Joshua Galbraith, Eric Gosling, Simon N. Hattermann, Fred Hickler, Thomas Hinkel, Jochen Hof, Christian Huber, Veronika Jägermeyr, Jonas Krysanova, Valentina Marcé, Rafael Müller Schmied, Hannes Mouratiadou, Ioanna Pierson, Don Tittensor, Derek P. Vautard, Robert van Vliet, Michelle Biber, Matthias F. Betts, Richard A. Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Deryng, Delphine Frolking, Steve Jones, Chris D. Lotze, Heike K. Lotze-Campen, Hermann Sahajpal, Ritvik Thonicke, Kirsten Tian, Hanqin Yamagata, Yoshiki Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming–simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) |
| title | Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming–simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) |
| title_full | Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming–simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming–simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming–simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) |
| title_short | Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming–simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) |
| title_sort | assessing the impacts of 1.5 °c global warming–simulation protocol of the inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project (isimip2b) |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/48771/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/48771/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/48771/ |