Forecast evaluation tests and negative long-run variance estimates in small samples

In this paper, we show that when computing standard Diebold-Mariano-type tests for equal forecast accuracy and forecast encompassing, the long-run variance can frequently be negative when dealing with multi-step-ahead predictions in small, but empirically relevant, sample sizes. We subsequently cons...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Harvey, David I., Leybourne, Stephen J., Whitehouse, Emily J.
Format: Article
Published: Elsevier 2017
Subjects:
Online Access:https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/43017/