Evaluation and Comparison of Different Approaches for Promotional Forecasting: A Case Study of a Soft Drink Company

This paper describes two approaches for promotional forecasting based on a mathematical tool called linear regression. It intends to evaluate and compare the accuracy level of different forecasting approaches by introducing a case study between the Coca Cola Enterprises (CCE) and the Morrisons. Both...

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Main Author: Lu, Yang
Format: Dissertation (University of Nottingham only)
Language:English
Published: 2011
Online Access:https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/25013/
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author Lu, Yang
author_facet Lu, Yang
author_sort Lu, Yang
building Nottingham Research Data Repository
collection Online Access
description This paper describes two approaches for promotional forecasting based on a mathematical tool called linear regression. It intends to evaluate and compare the accuracy level of different forecasting approaches by introducing a case study between the Coca Cola Enterprises (CCE) and the Morrisons. Both of the two approaches are derived from previous researches and literature review on conventional forecasting, especially on promotional forecasting, and forecasts based on aggregation. They are designed as multivariable linear regression models, which involves several promotional mixes as variables including percentage discount, display, and holidays. The performances of both approaches are satisfactory in terms of the adjusted R2 (over 80%) and the MAPE (lower than 20%). Besides, for most kinds of soft drinks, the second approach represents a relative better ability on promotional forecasting. The limitation would be the errors between estimates and actual sales volume are magnified due to the process of disaggregation. Thus, in the final part of this research, a newly proposed model is tested on coke 2l product line, which is expected to give an initial idea for further research.
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spelling nottingham-250132018-02-16T00:15:30Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/25013/ Evaluation and Comparison of Different Approaches for Promotional Forecasting: A Case Study of a Soft Drink Company Lu, Yang This paper describes two approaches for promotional forecasting based on a mathematical tool called linear regression. It intends to evaluate and compare the accuracy level of different forecasting approaches by introducing a case study between the Coca Cola Enterprises (CCE) and the Morrisons. Both of the two approaches are derived from previous researches and literature review on conventional forecasting, especially on promotional forecasting, and forecasts based on aggregation. They are designed as multivariable linear regression models, which involves several promotional mixes as variables including percentage discount, display, and holidays. The performances of both approaches are satisfactory in terms of the adjusted R2 (over 80%) and the MAPE (lower than 20%). Besides, for most kinds of soft drinks, the second approach represents a relative better ability on promotional forecasting. The limitation would be the errors between estimates and actual sales volume are magnified due to the process of disaggregation. Thus, in the final part of this research, a newly proposed model is tested on coke 2l product line, which is expected to give an initial idea for further research. 2011-09-20 Dissertation (University of Nottingham only) NonPeerReviewed application/pdf en https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/25013/1/dissertation.pdf Lu, Yang (2011) Evaluation and Comparison of Different Approaches for Promotional Forecasting: A Case Study of a Soft Drink Company. [Dissertation (University of Nottingham only)] (Unpublished)
spellingShingle Lu, Yang
Evaluation and Comparison of Different Approaches for Promotional Forecasting: A Case Study of a Soft Drink Company
title Evaluation and Comparison of Different Approaches for Promotional Forecasting: A Case Study of a Soft Drink Company
title_full Evaluation and Comparison of Different Approaches for Promotional Forecasting: A Case Study of a Soft Drink Company
title_fullStr Evaluation and Comparison of Different Approaches for Promotional Forecasting: A Case Study of a Soft Drink Company
title_full_unstemmed Evaluation and Comparison of Different Approaches for Promotional Forecasting: A Case Study of a Soft Drink Company
title_short Evaluation and Comparison of Different Approaches for Promotional Forecasting: A Case Study of a Soft Drink Company
title_sort evaluation and comparison of different approaches for promotional forecasting: a case study of a soft drink company
url https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/25013/