Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation
The abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, was associated with a profound change in the spatial dynamics of the disease. Drawing on the complete record of poliomyelitis notifications in England and Wales, we use a robust method of spatial epidemiol...
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| Format: | Article |
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Cambridge University Press
2014
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/2271/ |
| _version_ | 1848790744088707072 |
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| author | Smallman-Raynor, Matthew Cliff, A.D. |
| author_facet | Smallman-Raynor, Matthew Cliff, A.D. |
| author_sort | Smallman-Raynor, Matthew |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | The abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, was associated with a profound change in the spatial dynamics of the disease. Drawing on the complete record of poliomyelitis notifications in England and Wales, we use a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis (swash-backwash model) to evaluate the geographical rate of disease propagation in successive poliomyelitis seasons, 1940–1964. Comparisons with earlier and later time periods show that the period of heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity corresponded with a sudden and pronounced increase in the spatial rate of disease propagation. This change was observed for both urban and rural areas and points to an abrupt enhancement in the propensity for the geographical spread of polioviruses. Competing theories of the epidemic emergence of poliomyelitis in England and Wales should be assessed in the light of this evidence. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T18:17:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-2271 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T18:17:28Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-22712020-05-04T20:15:11Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/2271/ Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation Smallman-Raynor, Matthew Cliff, A.D. The abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, was associated with a profound change in the spatial dynamics of the disease. Drawing on the complete record of poliomyelitis notifications in England and Wales, we use a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis (swash-backwash model) to evaluate the geographical rate of disease propagation in successive poliomyelitis seasons, 1940–1964. Comparisons with earlier and later time periods show that the period of heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity corresponded with a sudden and pronounced increase in the spatial rate of disease propagation. This change was observed for both urban and rural areas and points to an abrupt enhancement in the propensity for the geographical spread of polioviruses. Competing theories of the epidemic emergence of poliomyelitis in England and Wales should be assessed in the light of this evidence. Cambridge University Press 2014-03 Article PeerReviewed Smallman-Raynor, Matthew and Cliff, A.D. (2014) Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation. Epidemiology and Infection, 142 (3). pp. 577-591. ISSN 0950-2688 http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9153609 doi:10.1017/S0950268813001441 doi:10.1017/S0950268813001441 |
| spellingShingle | Smallman-Raynor, Matthew Cliff, A.D. Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation |
| title | Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation |
| title_full | Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation |
| title_fullStr | Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation |
| title_short | Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation |
| title_sort | abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in england and wales, 1947–1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/2271/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/2271/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/2271/ |