Probability distribution fitting of schedule overruns in construction projects
The probability of schedule overruns for construction and engineering projects can be ascertained using a ‘best fit’ probability distribution from an empirical distribution. The statistical characteristics of schedule overruns occurring in 276 Australian construction and engineering projects were an...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Published: |
Palgrave MacMillan
2013
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/38408 |
| _version_ | 1848755312899653632 |
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| author | Love, Peter Sing, Michael Wang, Xiangyu Edwards, David Odeyinka, Henry |
| author_facet | Love, Peter Sing, Michael Wang, Xiangyu Edwards, David Odeyinka, Henry |
| author_sort | Love, Peter |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | The probability of schedule overruns for construction and engineering projects can be ascertained using a ‘best fit’ probability distribution from an empirical distribution. The statistical characteristics of schedule overruns occurring in 276 Australian construction and engineering projects were analysed. Skewness and kurtosis values revealed that schedule overruns are non-Gaussian. Theoretical probability distributions were then fitted to the schedule overrun data; including the Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Anderson–Darling and Chi-Squared non-parametric tests to determine the ‘Goodness of Fit’. A Four Parameter Burr probability function best described the behaviour of schedule overruns, provided the best overall distribution fit and was used to calculate the probability of a schedule overrun being experienced. The statistical characteristics of contract size and schedule overruns were also analysed, and the Wakeby (<AU$1 m and AU$11–50 m), Three Parameter Log-logistic (AU$1–A$10 m) and Beta (AU$51–A$100 m and >AU$101 m) models provided the best distribution fits and were used to calculate schedule overrun probabilities by contract size. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T08:54:19Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-38408 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T08:54:19Z |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publisher | Palgrave MacMillan |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-384082017-09-13T14:10:55Z Probability distribution fitting of schedule overruns in construction projects Love, Peter Sing, Michael Wang, Xiangyu Edwards, David Odeyinka, Henry distribution fitting schedule overrun probability Australia probability distribution The probability of schedule overruns for construction and engineering projects can be ascertained using a ‘best fit’ probability distribution from an empirical distribution. The statistical characteristics of schedule overruns occurring in 276 Australian construction and engineering projects were analysed. Skewness and kurtosis values revealed that schedule overruns are non-Gaussian. Theoretical probability distributions were then fitted to the schedule overrun data; including the Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Anderson–Darling and Chi-Squared non-parametric tests to determine the ‘Goodness of Fit’. A Four Parameter Burr probability function best described the behaviour of schedule overruns, provided the best overall distribution fit and was used to calculate the probability of a schedule overrun being experienced. The statistical characteristics of contract size and schedule overruns were also analysed, and the Wakeby (<AU$1 m and AU$11–50 m), Three Parameter Log-logistic (AU$1–A$10 m) and Beta (AU$51–A$100 m and >AU$101 m) models provided the best distribution fits and were used to calculate schedule overrun probabilities by contract size. 2013 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/38408 10.1057/jors.2013.29 Palgrave MacMillan restricted |
| spellingShingle | distribution fitting schedule overrun probability Australia probability distribution Love, Peter Sing, Michael Wang, Xiangyu Edwards, David Odeyinka, Henry Probability distribution fitting of schedule overruns in construction projects |
| title | Probability distribution fitting of schedule overruns in construction projects |
| title_full | Probability distribution fitting of schedule overruns in construction projects |
| title_fullStr | Probability distribution fitting of schedule overruns in construction projects |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probability distribution fitting of schedule overruns in construction projects |
| title_short | Probability distribution fitting of schedule overruns in construction projects |
| title_sort | probability distribution fitting of schedule overruns in construction projects |
| topic | distribution fitting schedule overrun probability Australia probability distribution |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/38408 |