Time series analysis of the association between ambient temperature and cerebrovascular morbidity in the elderly in Shanghai, China

Research on the association between ambient temperature and cerebrovascular morbidity is scarce in China. In this study, we applied mixed generalized additive model (MGAM) to daily counts of cerebrovascular disease of Shanghai residents aged 65 years or older from 2007–2011, stratified by gender. We...

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Main Authors:	Zhang, Xian-Jing, Ma, Wei-Ping, Zhao, Nai-Qing, Wang, Xi-Ling
Format:	Online
Language:	English
Published:	Nature Publishing Group 2016
Online Access:	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4707484/

id	pubmed-4707484
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	pubmed-47074842016-01-20 Time series analysis of the association between ambient temperature and cerebrovascular morbidity in the elderly in Shanghai, China Zhang, Xian-Jing Ma, Wei-Ping Zhao, Nai-Qing Wang, Xi-Ling Article Research on the association between ambient temperature and cerebrovascular morbidity is scarce in China. In this study, we applied mixed generalized additive model (MGAM) to daily counts of cerebrovascular disease of Shanghai residents aged 65 years or older from 2007–2011, stratified by gender. Weighted daily mean temperature up to lags of one week was smoothed by natural cubic spline, and was added into the model to assess both linear and nonlinear effects of temperature. We found that when the mean temperature increased by 1 °C, the male cases of cerebrovascular disease reduced by 0.95% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.80%, 1.10%) or reduced by 0.34% (95% CI: −0.68, 1.36%) in conditions of temperature was below or above 27 °C. However, for every 1 °C increase in temperature, the female cases of cerebrovascular disease increased by 0.34% (95% CI: −0.26%, 0.94%) or decreased by 0.92% (95% CI: 0.72, 1.11%) in conditions of temperature was below or above 8 °C, respectively. Temperature and cerebrovascular morbidity is negatively associated in Shanghai. MGAM is recommended in assessing the association between environmental hazards and health outcomes in time series studies. Nature Publishing Group 2016-01-11 /pmc/articles/PMC4707484/ /pubmed/26750421 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep19052 Text en Copyright © 2016, Macmillan Publishers Limited http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
repository_type	Open Access Journal
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	US National Center for Biotechnology Information
building	NCBI PubMed
collection	Online Access
language	English
format	Online
author	Zhang, Xian-Jing Ma, Wei-Ping Zhao, Nai-Qing Wang, Xi-Ling
spellingShingle	Zhang, Xian-Jing Ma, Wei-Ping Zhao, Nai-Qing Wang, Xi-Ling Time series analysis of the association between ambient temperature and cerebrovascular morbidity in the elderly in Shanghai, China
author_facet	Zhang, Xian-Jing Ma, Wei-Ping Zhao, Nai-Qing Wang, Xi-Ling
author_sort	Zhang, Xian-Jing
title	Time series analysis of the association between ambient temperature and cerebrovascular morbidity in the elderly in Shanghai, China
title_short	Time series analysis of the association between ambient temperature and cerebrovascular morbidity in the elderly in Shanghai, China
title_full	Time series analysis of the association between ambient temperature and cerebrovascular morbidity in the elderly in Shanghai, China
title_fullStr	Time series analysis of the association between ambient temperature and cerebrovascular morbidity in the elderly in Shanghai, China
title_full_unstemmed	Time series analysis of the association between ambient temperature and cerebrovascular morbidity in the elderly in Shanghai, China
title_sort	time series analysis of the association between ambient temperature and cerebrovascular morbidity in the elderly in shanghai, china
description	Research on the association between ambient temperature and cerebrovascular morbidity is scarce in China. In this study, we applied mixed generalized additive model (MGAM) to daily counts of cerebrovascular disease of Shanghai residents aged 65 years or older from 2007–2011, stratified by gender. Weighted daily mean temperature up to lags of one week was smoothed by natural cubic spline, and was added into the model to assess both linear and nonlinear effects of temperature. We found that when the mean temperature increased by 1 °C, the male cases of cerebrovascular disease reduced by 0.95% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.80%, 1.10%) or reduced by 0.34% (95% CI: −0.68, 1.36%) in conditions of temperature was below or above 27 °C. However, for every 1 °C increase in temperature, the female cases of cerebrovascular disease increased by 0.34% (95% CI: −0.26%, 0.94%) or decreased by 0.92% (95% CI: 0.72, 1.11%) in conditions of temperature was below or above 8 °C, respectively. Temperature and cerebrovascular morbidity is negatively associated in Shanghai. MGAM is recommended in assessing the association between environmental hazards and health outcomes in time series studies.
publisher	Nature Publishing Group
publishDate	2016
url	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4707484/
_version_	1613522063152119808

Time series analysis of the association between ambient temperature and cerebrovascular morbidity in the elderly in Shanghai, China

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