Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic

Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and e...

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Main Authors:	Harmon, Dion, Lagi, Marco, de Aguiar, Marcus A. M., Chinellato, David D., Braha, Dan, Epstein, Irving R., Bar-Yam, Yaneer
Format:	Online
Language:	English
Published:	Public Library of Science 2015
Online Access:	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4506134/

id	pubmed-4506134
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	pubmed-45061342015-07-23 Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic Harmon, Dion Lagi, Marco de Aguiar, Marcus A. M. Chinellato, David D. Braha, Dan Epstein, Irving R. Bar-Yam, Yaneer Research Article Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and earlier large single-day panics were preceded by extended periods of high levels of market mimicry—direct evidence of uncertainty and nervousness, and of the comparatively weak influence of external news. High levels of mimicry can be a quite general indicator of the potential for self-organized crises. Public Library of Science 2015-07-17 /pmc/articles/PMC4506134/ /pubmed/26185988 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0131871 Text en © 2015 Harmon et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
repository_type	Open Access Journal
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	US National Center for Biotechnology Information
building	NCBI PubMed
collection	Online Access
language	English
format	Online
author	Harmon, Dion Lagi, Marco de Aguiar, Marcus A. M. Chinellato, David D. Braha, Dan Epstein, Irving R. Bar-Yam, Yaneer
spellingShingle	Harmon, Dion Lagi, Marco de Aguiar, Marcus A. M. Chinellato, David D. Braha, Dan Epstein, Irving R. Bar-Yam, Yaneer Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic
author_facet	Harmon, Dion Lagi, Marco de Aguiar, Marcus A. M. Chinellato, David D. Braha, Dan Epstein, Irving R. Bar-Yam, Yaneer
author_sort	Harmon, Dion
title	Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic
title_short	Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic
title_full	Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic
title_fullStr	Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic
title_full_unstemmed	Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic
title_sort	anticipating economic market crises using measures of collective panic
description	Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and earlier large single-day panics were preceded by extended periods of high levels of market mimicry—direct evidence of uncertainty and nervousness, and of the comparatively weak influence of external news. High levels of mimicry can be a quite general indicator of the potential for self-organized crises.
publisher	Public Library of Science
publishDate	2015
url	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4506134/
_version_	1613249098560831488

Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic

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