Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model
Forecasting the outcomes of national elections has become established practice in several democracies. In the present paper, we develop an economic voting model for forecasting the future success of the Austrian ‘grand coalition’, i.e., the joint electoral success of the two mainstream parties SPOE...
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| Format: | Online |
| Language: | English |
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North-Holland
2014
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| Online Access: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4376048/ |
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pubmed-43760482015-09-01 Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model Aichholzer, Julian Willmann, Johanna Article Forecasting the outcomes of national elections has become established practice in several democracies. In the present paper, we develop an economic voting model for forecasting the future success of the Austrian ‘grand coalition’, i.e., the joint electoral success of the two mainstream parties SPOE and OEVP, at the 2013 Austrian Parliamentary Elections. Our main argument is that the success of both parties is strongly tied to the accomplishments of the Austrian system of corporatism, that is, the Social Partnership (Sozialpartnerschaft), in providing economic prosperity. Using data from Austrian national elections between 1953 and 2008 (n=18), we rely on the following predictors in our forecasting model: (1) unemployment rates, (2) previous incumbency of the two parties, and (3) dealignment over time. We conclude that, in general, the two mainstream parties benefit considerably from low unemployment rates, and are weakened whenever they have previously formed a coalition government. Further, we show that they have gradually been losing a good share of their voter basis over recent decades. North-Holland 2014 /pmc/articles/PMC4376048/ /pubmed/26339109 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.011 Text en © 2013 International Institute of Forecasters. Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| repository_type |
Open Access Journal |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
US National Center for Biotechnology Information |
| building |
NCBI PubMed |
| collection |
Online Access |
| language |
English |
| format |
Online |
| author |
Aichholzer, Julian Willmann, Johanna |
| spellingShingle |
Aichholzer, Julian Willmann, Johanna Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model |
| author_facet |
Aichholzer, Julian Willmann, Johanna |
| author_sort |
Aichholzer, Julian |
| title |
Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model |
| title_short |
Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model |
| title_full |
Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model |
| title_fullStr |
Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model |
| title_sort |
forecasting austrian national elections: the grand coalition model |
| description |
Forecasting the outcomes of national elections has become established practice in several democracies. In the present paper, we develop an economic voting model for forecasting the future success of the Austrian ‘grand coalition’, i.e., the joint electoral success of the two mainstream parties SPOE and OEVP, at the 2013 Austrian Parliamentary Elections. Our main argument is that the success of both parties is strongly tied to the accomplishments of the Austrian system of corporatism, that is, the Social Partnership (Sozialpartnerschaft), in providing economic prosperity. Using data from Austrian national elections between 1953 and 2008 (n=18), we rely on the following predictors in our forecasting model: (1) unemployment rates, (2) previous incumbency of the two parties, and (3) dealignment over time. We conclude that, in general, the two mainstream parties benefit considerably from low unemployment rates, and are weakened whenever they have previously formed a coalition government. Further, we show that they have gradually been losing a good share of their voter basis over recent decades. |
| publisher |
North-Holland |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4376048/ |
| _version_ |
1613204256539541504 |