Estimating Potential Incidence of MERS-CoV Associated with Hajj Pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014

Between March and June 2014 the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) had a large outbreak of MERS-CoV, renewing fears of a major outbreak during the Hajj this October. Using KSA Ministry of Health data, the MERS-CoV Scenario and Modeling Working Group forecast incidence under three scenarios. In the expect...

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Main Authors:	Lessler, Justin, Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel, Cummings, Derek A.T., Garske, Tini, Van Kerkhove, Maria, Mills, Harriet, Truelove, Shaun, Hakeem, Rafat, Albarrak, Ali, Ferguson, Neil M.
Format:	Online
Language:	English
Published:	Public Library of Science 2014
Online Access:	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4323406/

id	pubmed-4323406
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	pubmed-43234062015-02-13 Estimating Potential Incidence of MERS-CoV Associated with Hajj Pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014 Lessler, Justin Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel Cummings, Derek A.T. Garske, Tini Van Kerkhove, Maria Mills, Harriet Truelove, Shaun Hakeem, Rafat Albarrak, Ali Ferguson, Neil M. Research Between March and June 2014 the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) had a large outbreak of MERS-CoV, renewing fears of a major outbreak during the Hajj this October. Using KSA Ministry of Health data, the MERS-CoV Scenario and Modeling Working Group forecast incidence under three scenarios. In the expected incidence scenario, we estimate 6.2 (95% Prediction Interval [PI]: 1–17) pilgrims will develop MERS-CoV symptoms during the Hajj, and 4.0 (95% PI: 0–12) foreign pilgrims will be infected but return home before developing symptoms. In the most pessimistic scenario, 47.6 (95% PI: 32–66) cases will develop symptoms during the Hajj, and 29.0 (95% PI: 17–43) will be infected but return home asymptomatic. Large numbers of MERS-CoV cases are unlikely to occur during the 2014 Hajj even under pessimistic assumptions, but careful monitoring is still needed to detect possible mass infection events and minimize introductions into other countries. Public Library of Science 2014-11-24 /pmc/articles/PMC4323406/ /pubmed/25685624 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.c5c9c9abd636164a9b6fd4dbda974369 Text en http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
repository_type	Open Access Journal
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	US National Center for Biotechnology Information
building	NCBI PubMed
collection	Online Access
language	English
format	Online
author	Lessler, Justin Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel Cummings, Derek A.T. Garske, Tini Van Kerkhove, Maria Mills, Harriet Truelove, Shaun Hakeem, Rafat Albarrak, Ali Ferguson, Neil M.
spellingShingle	Lessler, Justin Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel Cummings, Derek A.T. Garske, Tini Van Kerkhove, Maria Mills, Harriet Truelove, Shaun Hakeem, Rafat Albarrak, Ali Ferguson, Neil M. Estimating Potential Incidence of MERS-CoV Associated with Hajj Pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014
author_facet	Lessler, Justin Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel Cummings, Derek A.T. Garske, Tini Van Kerkhove, Maria Mills, Harriet Truelove, Shaun Hakeem, Rafat Albarrak, Ali Ferguson, Neil M.
author_sort	Lessler, Justin
title	Estimating Potential Incidence of MERS-CoV Associated with Hajj Pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014
title_short	Estimating Potential Incidence of MERS-CoV Associated with Hajj Pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014
title_full	Estimating Potential Incidence of MERS-CoV Associated with Hajj Pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014
title_fullStr	Estimating Potential Incidence of MERS-CoV Associated with Hajj Pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014
title_full_unstemmed	Estimating Potential Incidence of MERS-CoV Associated with Hajj Pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014
title_sort	estimating potential incidence of mers-cov associated with hajj pilgrims to saudi arabia, 2014
description	Between March and June 2014 the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) had a large outbreak of MERS-CoV, renewing fears of a major outbreak during the Hajj this October. Using KSA Ministry of Health data, the MERS-CoV Scenario and Modeling Working Group forecast incidence under three scenarios. In the expected incidence scenario, we estimate 6.2 (95% Prediction Interval [PI]: 1–17) pilgrims will develop MERS-CoV symptoms during the Hajj, and 4.0 (95% PI: 0–12) foreign pilgrims will be infected but return home before developing symptoms. In the most pessimistic scenario, 47.6 (95% PI: 32–66) cases will develop symptoms during the Hajj, and 29.0 (95% PI: 17–43) will be infected but return home asymptomatic. Large numbers of MERS-CoV cases are unlikely to occur during the 2014 Hajj even under pessimistic assumptions, but careful monitoring is still needed to detect possible mass infection events and minimize introductions into other countries.
publisher	Public Library of Science
publishDate	2014
url	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4323406/
_version_	1613186441203941376

Estimating Potential Incidence of MERS-CoV Associated with Hajj Pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014

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