Is West Africa Approaching a Catastrophic Phase or is the 2014 Ebola Epidemic Slowing Down? Different Models Yield Different Answers for Liberia

Is West Africa Approaching a Catastrophic Phase or is the 2014 Ebola Epidemic Slowing Down? Different Models Yield Different Answers for Liberia

An unprecedented epidemic of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) has affected West Africa since approximately December 2013, with intense transmission on-going in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia and increasingly important international repercussions. Mathematical models are proving instrumental to forecast the...

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Main Authors: Chowell, Gerardo, Simonsen, Lone, Viboud, Cécile, Kuang, Yang
Format: Online
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science 2014
Online Access:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4318911/
id pubmed-4318911
recordtype oai_dc
spelling pubmed-43189112015-02-12 Is West Africa Approaching a Catastrophic Phase or is the 2014 Ebola Epidemic Slowing Down? Different Models Yield Different Answers for Liberia Chowell, Gerardo Simonsen, Lone Viboud, Cécile Kuang, Yang Commentary An unprecedented epidemic of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) has affected West Africa since approximately December 2013, with intense transmission on-going in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia and increasingly important international repercussions. Mathematical models are proving instrumental to forecast the expected number of infections and deaths and quantify the intensity of interventions required to control transmission; however, calibrating mechanistic transmission models to an on-going outbreak is a challenging task owing to limited availability of epidemiological data and rapidly changing interventions. Here we project the trajectory of the EBOV epidemic in Liberia by fitting logistic growth models to the cumulative number of cases. Our model predictions align well with the latest epidemiological reports available as of October 23, and indicates that the exponential growth phase is over in Liberia, with an expected final attack rate of ~0.1-0.12%. Our results indicate that simple phenomenological models can provide complementary insights into the dynamics of an outbreak and capture early signs of changes in population behavior and interventions. In particular, our results underscore the need to treat the effective size of the susceptible population as a dynamic variable rather than a fixed quantity, due to reactive changes in transmission throughout the outbreak. We show that predictions from the logistic model are more variable in the earlier stages of an epidemic (such as the EBOV epidemics in Sierra Leone and Guinea). More research is warranted to compare the performances of mechanistic and phenomenological approaches for disease forecasts, before such predictions can be fully used by public health authorities. Public Library of Science 2014-11-20 /pmc/articles/PMC4318911/ /pubmed/25685615 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.b4690859d91684da963dc40e00f3da81 Text en http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
repository_type Open Access Journal
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution US National Center for Biotechnology Information
building NCBI PubMed
collection Online Access
language English
format Online
author Chowell, Gerardo
Simonsen, Lone
Viboud, Cécile
Kuang, Yang
spellingShingle Chowell, Gerardo
Simonsen, Lone
Viboud, Cécile
Kuang, Yang
Is West Africa Approaching a Catastrophic Phase or is the 2014 Ebola Epidemic Slowing Down? Different Models Yield Different Answers for Liberia
author_facet Chowell, Gerardo
Simonsen, Lone
Viboud, Cécile
Kuang, Yang
author_sort Chowell, Gerardo
title Is West Africa Approaching a Catastrophic Phase or is the 2014 Ebola Epidemic Slowing Down? Different Models Yield Different Answers for Liberia
title_short Is West Africa Approaching a Catastrophic Phase or is the 2014 Ebola Epidemic Slowing Down? Different Models Yield Different Answers for Liberia
title_full Is West Africa Approaching a Catastrophic Phase or is the 2014 Ebola Epidemic Slowing Down? Different Models Yield Different Answers for Liberia
title_fullStr Is West Africa Approaching a Catastrophic Phase or is the 2014 Ebola Epidemic Slowing Down? Different Models Yield Different Answers for Liberia
title_full_unstemmed Is West Africa Approaching a Catastrophic Phase or is the 2014 Ebola Epidemic Slowing Down? Different Models Yield Different Answers for Liberia
title_sort is west africa approaching a catastrophic phase or is the 2014 ebola epidemic slowing down? different models yield different answers for liberia
description An unprecedented epidemic of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) has affected West Africa since approximately December 2013, with intense transmission on-going in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia and increasingly important international repercussions. Mathematical models are proving instrumental to forecast the expected number of infections and deaths and quantify the intensity of interventions required to control transmission; however, calibrating mechanistic transmission models to an on-going outbreak is a challenging task owing to limited availability of epidemiological data and rapidly changing interventions. Here we project the trajectory of the EBOV epidemic in Liberia by fitting logistic growth models to the cumulative number of cases. Our model predictions align well with the latest epidemiological reports available as of October 23, and indicates that the exponential growth phase is over in Liberia, with an expected final attack rate of ~0.1-0.12%. Our results indicate that simple phenomenological models can provide complementary insights into the dynamics of an outbreak and capture early signs of changes in population behavior and interventions. In particular, our results underscore the need to treat the effective size of the susceptible population as a dynamic variable rather than a fixed quantity, due to reactive changes in transmission throughout the outbreak. We show that predictions from the logistic model are more variable in the earlier stages of an epidemic (such as the EBOV epidemics in Sierra Leone and Guinea). More research is warranted to compare the performances of mechanistic and phenomenological approaches for disease forecasts, before such predictions can be fully used by public health authorities.
publisher Public Library of Science
publishDate 2014
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4318911/
_version_ 1613184800499171328

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