Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and huma...

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Main Authors:	Thornton, Philip K, Ericksen, Polly J, Herrero, Mario, Challinor, Andrew J
Format:	Online
Language:	English
Published:	BlackWell Publishing Ltd 2014
Online Access:	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4258067/

id	pubmed-4258067
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	pubmed-42580672014-12-11 Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review Thornton, Philip K Ericksen, Polly J Herrero, Mario Challinor, Andrew J Research Reviews The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. BlackWell Publishing Ltd 2014-11 2014-04-26 /pmc/articles/PMC4258067/ /pubmed/24668802 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12581 Text en © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/ This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
repository_type	Open Access Journal
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	US National Center for Biotechnology Information
building	NCBI PubMed
collection	Online Access
language	English
format	Online
author	Thornton, Philip K Ericksen, Polly J Herrero, Mario Challinor, Andrew J
spellingShingle	Thornton, Philip K Ericksen, Polly J Herrero, Mario Challinor, Andrew J Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review
author_facet	Thornton, Philip K Ericksen, Polly J Herrero, Mario Challinor, Andrew J
author_sort	Thornton, Philip K
title	Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review
title_short	Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review
title_full	Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review
title_fullStr	Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review
title_full_unstemmed	Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review
title_sort	climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review
description	The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades.
publisher	BlackWell Publishing Ltd
publishDate	2014
url	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4258067/
_version_	1613164813193576448

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

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