Modelling the Progression of Bird Migration with Conditional Autoregressive Models Applied to Ringing Data
Migration is a fundamental stage in the life history of several taxa, including birds, and is under strong selective pressure. At present, the only data that may allow for both an assessment of patterns of bird migration and for retrospective analyses of changes in migration timing are the databases...
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| Format: | Online |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science
2014
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| Online Access: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4105499/ |
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pubmed-4105499 |
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oai_dc |
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pubmed-41054992014-07-23 Modelling the Progression of Bird Migration with Conditional Autoregressive Models Applied to Ringing Data Ambrosini, Roberto Borgoni, Riccardo Rubolini, Diego Sicurella, Beatrice Fiedler, Wolfgang Bairlein, Franz Baillie, Stephen R. Robinson, Robert A. Clark, Jacquie A. Spina, Fernando Saino, Nicola Research Article Migration is a fundamental stage in the life history of several taxa, including birds, and is under strong selective pressure. At present, the only data that may allow for both an assessment of patterns of bird migration and for retrospective analyses of changes in migration timing are the databases of ring recoveries. We used ring recoveries of the Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica collected from 1908–2008 in Europe to model the calendar date at which a given proportion of birds is expected to have reached a given geographical area (‘progression of migration’) and to investigate the change in timing of migration over the same areas between three time periods (1908–1969, 1970–1990, 1991–2008). The analyses were conducted using binomial conditional autoregressive (CAR) mixed models. We first concentrated on data from the British Isles and then expanded the models to western Europe and north Africa. We produced maps of the progression of migration that disclosed local patterns of migration consistent with those obtained from the analyses of the movements of ringed individuals. Timing of migration estimated from our model is consistent with data on migration phenology of the Barn Swallow available in the literature, but in some cases it is later than that estimated by data collected at ringing stations, which, however, may not be representative of migration phenology over large geographical areas. The comparison of median migration date estimated over the same geographical area among time periods showed no significant advancement of spring migration over the whole of Europe, but a significant advancement of autumn migration in southern Europe. Our modelling approach can be generalized to any records of ringing date and locality of individuals including those which have not been recovered subsequently, as well as to geo-referenced databases of sightings of migratory individuals. Public Library of Science 2014-07-21 /pmc/articles/PMC4105499/ /pubmed/25047331 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0102440 Text en © 2014 Ambrosini et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
| repository_type |
Open Access Journal |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
US National Center for Biotechnology Information |
| building |
NCBI PubMed |
| collection |
Online Access |
| language |
English |
| format |
Online |
| author |
Ambrosini, Roberto Borgoni, Riccardo Rubolini, Diego Sicurella, Beatrice Fiedler, Wolfgang Bairlein, Franz Baillie, Stephen R. Robinson, Robert A. Clark, Jacquie A. Spina, Fernando Saino, Nicola |
| spellingShingle |
Ambrosini, Roberto Borgoni, Riccardo Rubolini, Diego Sicurella, Beatrice Fiedler, Wolfgang Bairlein, Franz Baillie, Stephen R. Robinson, Robert A. Clark, Jacquie A. Spina, Fernando Saino, Nicola Modelling the Progression of Bird Migration with Conditional Autoregressive Models Applied to Ringing Data |
| author_facet |
Ambrosini, Roberto Borgoni, Riccardo Rubolini, Diego Sicurella, Beatrice Fiedler, Wolfgang Bairlein, Franz Baillie, Stephen R. Robinson, Robert A. Clark, Jacquie A. Spina, Fernando Saino, Nicola |
| author_sort |
Ambrosini, Roberto |
| title |
Modelling the Progression of Bird Migration with Conditional Autoregressive Models Applied to Ringing Data |
| title_short |
Modelling the Progression of Bird Migration with Conditional Autoregressive Models Applied to Ringing Data |
| title_full |
Modelling the Progression of Bird Migration with Conditional Autoregressive Models Applied to Ringing Data |
| title_fullStr |
Modelling the Progression of Bird Migration with Conditional Autoregressive Models Applied to Ringing Data |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling the Progression of Bird Migration with Conditional Autoregressive Models Applied to Ringing Data |
| title_sort |
modelling the progression of bird migration with conditional autoregressive models applied to ringing data |
| description |
Migration is a fundamental stage in the life history of several taxa, including birds, and is under strong selective pressure. At present, the only data that may allow for both an assessment of patterns of bird migration and for retrospective analyses of changes in migration timing are the databases of ring recoveries. We used ring recoveries of the Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica collected from 1908–2008 in Europe to model the calendar date at which a given proportion of birds is expected to have reached a given geographical area (‘progression of migration’) and to investigate the change in timing of migration over the same areas between three time periods (1908–1969, 1970–1990, 1991–2008). The analyses were conducted using binomial conditional autoregressive (CAR) mixed models. We first concentrated on data from the British Isles and then expanded the models to western Europe and north Africa. We produced maps of the progression of migration that disclosed local patterns of migration consistent with those obtained from the analyses of the movements of ringed individuals. Timing of migration estimated from our model is consistent with data on migration phenology of the Barn Swallow available in the literature, but in some cases it is later than that estimated by data collected at ringing stations, which, however, may not be representative of migration phenology over large geographical areas. The comparison of median migration date estimated over the same geographical area among time periods showed no significant advancement of spring migration over the whole of Europe, but a significant advancement of autumn migration in southern Europe. Our modelling approach can be generalized to any records of ringing date and locality of individuals including those which have not been recovered subsequently, as well as to geo-referenced databases of sightings of migratory individuals. |
| publisher |
Public Library of Science |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4105499/ |
| _version_ |
1613116247645356032 |