Scenario Development as a Basis for Formulating a Research Program on Future Agriculture: A Methodological Approach

To increase the awareness of society to the challenges of global food security, we developed five contrasting global and European scenarios for 2050 and used these to identify important issues for future agricultural research. Using a scenario development method known as morphological analysis, scen...

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Main Authors:	Öborn, Ingrid, Bengtsson, Jan, Hedenus, Fredrik, Rydhmer, Lotta, Stenström, Maria, Vrede, Katarina, Westin, Charles, Magnusson, Ulf
Format:	Online
Language:	English
Published:	Springer Netherlands 2013
Online Access:	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3790135/

id	pubmed-3790135
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	pubmed-37901352013-10-23 Scenario Development as a Basis for Formulating a Research Program on Future Agriculture: A Methodological Approach Öborn, Ingrid Bengtsson, Jan Hedenus, Fredrik Rydhmer, Lotta Stenström, Maria Vrede, Katarina Westin, Charles Magnusson, Ulf Review To increase the awareness of society to the challenges of global food security, we developed five contrasting global and European scenarios for 2050 and used these to identify important issues for future agricultural research. Using a scenario development method known as morphological analysis, scenarios were constructed that took economic, political, technical, and environmental factors into account. With the scenarios as a starting point future challenges were discussed and research issues and questions were identified in an interactive process with stakeholders and researchers. Based on the outcome of this process, six socioeconomic and biophysical overarching challenges for future agricultural were formulated and related research issues identified. The outcome was compared with research priorities generated in five other research programs. In comparison, our research questions focus more on societal values and the role of consumers in influencing agricultural production, as well as on policy formulation and resolving conflicting goals, areas that are presently under-represented in agricultural research. The partly new and more interdisciplinary research priorities identified in Future Agriculture compared to other programs analyzed are likely a result of the methodological approach used, combining scenarios and interaction between stakeholders and researchers. Springer Netherlands 2013-07-09 2013-11 /pmc/articles/PMC3790135/ /pubmed/23836311 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0417-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2013 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited.
repository_type	Open Access Journal
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	US National Center for Biotechnology Information
building	NCBI PubMed
collection	Online Access
language	English
format	Online
author	Öborn, Ingrid Bengtsson, Jan Hedenus, Fredrik Rydhmer, Lotta Stenström, Maria Vrede, Katarina Westin, Charles Magnusson, Ulf
spellingShingle	Öborn, Ingrid Bengtsson, Jan Hedenus, Fredrik Rydhmer, Lotta Stenström, Maria Vrede, Katarina Westin, Charles Magnusson, Ulf Scenario Development as a Basis for Formulating a Research Program on Future Agriculture: A Methodological Approach
author_facet	Öborn, Ingrid Bengtsson, Jan Hedenus, Fredrik Rydhmer, Lotta Stenström, Maria Vrede, Katarina Westin, Charles Magnusson, Ulf
author_sort	Öborn, Ingrid
title	Scenario Development as a Basis for Formulating a Research Program on Future Agriculture: A Methodological Approach
title_short	Scenario Development as a Basis for Formulating a Research Program on Future Agriculture: A Methodological Approach
title_full	Scenario Development as a Basis for Formulating a Research Program on Future Agriculture: A Methodological Approach
title_fullStr	Scenario Development as a Basis for Formulating a Research Program on Future Agriculture: A Methodological Approach
title_full_unstemmed	Scenario Development as a Basis for Formulating a Research Program on Future Agriculture: A Methodological Approach
title_sort	scenario development as a basis for formulating a research program on future agriculture: a methodological approach
description	To increase the awareness of society to the challenges of global food security, we developed five contrasting global and European scenarios for 2050 and used these to identify important issues for future agricultural research. Using a scenario development method known as morphological analysis, scenarios were constructed that took economic, political, technical, and environmental factors into account. With the scenarios as a starting point future challenges were discussed and research issues and questions were identified in an interactive process with stakeholders and researchers. Based on the outcome of this process, six socioeconomic and biophysical overarching challenges for future agricultural were formulated and related research issues identified. The outcome was compared with research priorities generated in five other research programs. In comparison, our research questions focus more on societal values and the role of consumers in influencing agricultural production, as well as on policy formulation and resolving conflicting goals, areas that are presently under-represented in agricultural research. The partly new and more interdisciplinary research priorities identified in Future Agriculture compared to other programs analyzed are likely a result of the methodological approach used, combining scenarios and interaction between stakeholders and researchers.
publisher	Springer Netherlands
publishDate	2013
url	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3790135/
_version_	1612016214783033344

Scenario Development as a Basis for Formulating a Research Program on Future Agriculture: A Methodological Approach

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