Dose–responses from multi-model inference for the non-cancer disease mortality of atomic bomb survivors

The non-cancer mortality data for cerebrovascular disease (CVD) and cardiovascular diseases from Report 13 on the atomic bomb survivors published by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation were analysed to investigate the dose–response for the influence of radiation on these detrimental health eff...

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Main Authors:	Schöllnberger, H., Kaiser, J. C., Jacob, P., Walsh, L.
Format:	Online
Language:	English
Published:	Springer-Verlag 2012
Online Access:	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3332375/

id	pubmed-3332375
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	pubmed-33323752012-05-14 Dose–responses from multi-model inference for the non-cancer disease mortality of atomic bomb survivors Schöllnberger, H. Kaiser, J. C. Jacob, P. Walsh, L. Original Paper The non-cancer mortality data for cerebrovascular disease (CVD) and cardiovascular diseases from Report 13 on the atomic bomb survivors published by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation were analysed to investigate the dose–response for the influence of radiation on these detrimental health effects. Various parametric and categorical models (such as linear-no-threshold (LNT) and a number of threshold and step models) were analysed with a statistical selection protocol that rated the model description of the data. Instead of applying the usual approach of identifying one preferred model for each data set, a set of plausible models was applied, and a sub-set of non-nested models was identified that all fitted the data about equally well. Subsequently, this sub-set of non-nested models was used to perform multi-model inference (MMI), an innovative method of mathematically combining different models to allow risk estimates to be based on several plausible dose–response models rather than just relying on a single model of choice. This procedure thereby produces more reliable risk estimates based on a more comprehensive appraisal of model uncertainties. For CVD, MMI yielded a weak dose–response (with a risk estimate of about one-third of the LNT model) below a step at 0.6 Gy and a stronger dose–response at higher doses. The calculated risk estimates are consistent with zero risk below this threshold-dose. For mortalities related to cardiovascular diseases, an LNT-type dose–response was found with risk estimates consistent with zero risk below 2.2 Gy based on 90% confidence intervals. The MMI approach described here resolves a dilemma in practical radiation protection when one is forced to select between models with profoundly different dose–responses for risk estimates. Springer-Verlag 2012-03-22 2012 /pmc/articles/PMC3332375/ /pubmed/22437350 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00411-012-0410-4 Text en © The Author(s) 2012
repository_type	Open Access Journal
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	US National Center for Biotechnology Information
building	NCBI PubMed
collection	Online Access
language	English
format	Online
author	Schöllnberger, H. Kaiser, J. C. Jacob, P. Walsh, L.
spellingShingle	Schöllnberger, H. Kaiser, J. C. Jacob, P. Walsh, L. Dose–responses from multi-model inference for the non-cancer disease mortality of atomic bomb survivors
author_facet	Schöllnberger, H. Kaiser, J. C. Jacob, P. Walsh, L.
author_sort	Schöllnberger, H.
title	Dose–responses from multi-model inference for the non-cancer disease mortality of atomic bomb survivors
title_short	Dose–responses from multi-model inference for the non-cancer disease mortality of atomic bomb survivors
title_full	Dose–responses from multi-model inference for the non-cancer disease mortality of atomic bomb survivors
title_fullStr	Dose–responses from multi-model inference for the non-cancer disease mortality of atomic bomb survivors
title_full_unstemmed	Dose–responses from multi-model inference for the non-cancer disease mortality of atomic bomb survivors
title_sort	dose–responses from multi-model inference for the non-cancer disease mortality of atomic bomb survivors
description	The non-cancer mortality data for cerebrovascular disease (CVD) and cardiovascular diseases from Report 13 on the atomic bomb survivors published by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation were analysed to investigate the dose–response for the influence of radiation on these detrimental health effects. Various parametric and categorical models (such as linear-no-threshold (LNT) and a number of threshold and step models) were analysed with a statistical selection protocol that rated the model description of the data. Instead of applying the usual approach of identifying one preferred model for each data set, a set of plausible models was applied, and a sub-set of non-nested models was identified that all fitted the data about equally well. Subsequently, this sub-set of non-nested models was used to perform multi-model inference (MMI), an innovative method of mathematically combining different models to allow risk estimates to be based on several plausible dose–response models rather than just relying on a single model of choice. This procedure thereby produces more reliable risk estimates based on a more comprehensive appraisal of model uncertainties. For CVD, MMI yielded a weak dose–response (with a risk estimate of about one-third of the LNT model) below a step at 0.6 Gy and a stronger dose–response at higher doses. The calculated risk estimates are consistent with zero risk below this threshold-dose. For mortalities related to cardiovascular diseases, an LNT-type dose–response was found with risk estimates consistent with zero risk below 2.2 Gy based on 90% confidence intervals. The MMI approach described here resolves a dilemma in practical radiation protection when one is forced to select between models with profoundly different dose–responses for risk estimates.
publisher	Springer-Verlag
publishDate	2012
url	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3332375/
_version_	1611522806904782848

Dose–responses from multi-model inference for the non-cancer disease mortality of atomic bomb survivors

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