Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction
Following Lorenz's seminal work on chaos theory in the 1960s, probabilistic approaches to prediction have come to dominate the science of weather and climate forecasting. This paper gives a perspective on Lorenz's work and how it has influenced the ways in which we seek to represent uncert...
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| Format: | Online |
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The Royal Society Publishing
2011
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| Online Access: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3270390/ |
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pubmed-32703902012-02-02 Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction Slingo, Julia Palmer, Tim Articles Following Lorenz's seminal work on chaos theory in the 1960s, probabilistic approaches to prediction have come to dominate the science of weather and climate forecasting. This paper gives a perspective on Lorenz's work and how it has influenced the ways in which we seek to represent uncertainty in forecasts on all lead times from hours to decades. It looks at how model uncertainty has been represented in probabilistic prediction systems and considers the challenges posed by a changing climate. Finally, the paper considers how the uncertainty in projections of climate change can be addressed to deliver more reliable and confident assessments that support decision-making on adaptation and mitigation. The Royal Society Publishing 2011-12-13 /pmc/articles/PMC3270390/ /pubmed/22042896 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0161 Text en This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| repository_type |
Open Access Journal |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
US National Center for Biotechnology Information |
| building |
NCBI PubMed |
| collection |
Online Access |
| language |
English |
| format |
Online |
| author |
Slingo, Julia Palmer, Tim |
| spellingShingle |
Slingo, Julia Palmer, Tim Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction |
| author_facet |
Slingo, Julia Palmer, Tim |
| author_sort |
Slingo, Julia |
| title |
Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction |
| title_short |
Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction |
| title_full |
Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction |
| title_fullStr |
Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction |
| title_sort |
uncertainty in weather and climate prediction |
| description |
Following Lorenz's seminal work on chaos theory in the 1960s, probabilistic approaches to prediction have come to dominate the science of weather and climate forecasting. This paper gives a perspective on Lorenz's work and how it has influenced the ways in which we seek to represent uncertainty in forecasts on all lead times from hours to decades. It looks at how model uncertainty has been represented in probabilistic prediction systems and considers the challenges posed by a changing climate. Finally, the paper considers how the uncertainty in projections of climate change can be addressed to deliver more reliable and confident assessments that support decision-making on adaptation and mitigation. |
| publisher |
The Royal Society Publishing |
| publishDate |
2011 |
| url |
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3270390/ |
| _version_ |
1611503225768247296 |