Simulating the effects of climate change on Sitobion avenae F. (Homoptera: Aphididae) and Coccinella septempunctata L. (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)

This study investigated how the predicted increase in global temperature would affect the interaction between the cereal aphid, Sitobion avenae F. (Hemiptera: Aphididae), and its coccinellid predator, Coccinella septempunctata L. (Coleoptera: CoccinelIidae). A model describing the summer population...

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Main Author:	Skirvin, David John
Format:	Thesis (University of Nottingham only)
Language:	English
Published:	1995
Online Access:	http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/12704/ http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/12704/1/308923.pdf

id	nottingham-12704
recordtype	eprints
spelling	nottingham-127042017-12-20T02:41:23Z http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/12704/ Simulating the effects of climate change on Sitobion avenae F. (Homoptera: Aphididae) and Coccinella septempunctata L. (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) Skirvin, David John This study investigated how the predicted increase in global temperature would affect the interaction between the cereal aphid, Sitobion avenae F. (Hemiptera: Aphididae), and its coccinellid predator, Coccinella septempunctata L. (Coleoptera: CoccinelIidae). A model describing the summer population dynamics of S. avenae (Carter et al., 1982) was modified and updated. New equations describing the dependence of aphid development and reproduction on temperature were formulated. A new submodel, describing the population dynamics of C. septempunctata, was incorporated into the model. The predatory interaction between C. septempunctata and S. aveizae was described using a modified form of the temperature-mediated functional response equation proposed by Mack et al. (1981). A sensitivity analysis showed that the output of the model, which compared well with field observations, was not greatly affected by small changes to the parameters of the equations used in the submodel. Stochastic elements were incorporated into the model; aphid and coccinellid immigration were simulated by sampling randomly from distributions fitted to observed patterns of immigration. Three temperature regimes: hot, moderate and cold, were defined by ranking and splitting the years from 1965 to 1992 according to the mean temperature between April and August. The temperature data from the years assigned to each regime were then used to formulate an equation to describe the daily temperatures within the five months. The model was run for each regime, and the output showed that both coccinellid predation and increased temperatures caused a decrease in aphid abundance. The model also highlighted several more subtle effects of increased temperature on the interaction between S. avenae and C. septempunctata. The importance of the model predictions for future control of aphid populations in cereal crops is discussed. 1995 Thesis (University of Nottingham only) NonPeerReviewed application/pdf en http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/12704/1/308923.pdf Skirvin, David John (1995) Simulating the effects of climate change on Sitobion avenae F. (Homoptera: Aphididae) and Coccinella septempunctata L. (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae). PhD thesis, University of Nottingham.
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Local University
institution	University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus
building	Nottingham Research Data Repository
collection	Online Access
language	English
description	This study investigated how the predicted increase in global temperature would affect the interaction between the cereal aphid, Sitobion avenae F. (Hemiptera: Aphididae), and its coccinellid predator, Coccinella septempunctata L. (Coleoptera: CoccinelIidae). A model describing the summer population dynamics of S. avenae (Carter et al., 1982) was modified and updated. New equations describing the dependence of aphid development and reproduction on temperature were formulated. A new submodel, describing the population dynamics of C. septempunctata, was incorporated into the model. The predatory interaction between C. septempunctata and S. aveizae was described using a modified form of the temperature-mediated functional response equation proposed by Mack et al. (1981). A sensitivity analysis showed that the output of the model, which compared well with field observations, was not greatly affected by small changes to the parameters of the equations used in the submodel. Stochastic elements were incorporated into the model; aphid and coccinellid immigration were simulated by sampling randomly from distributions fitted to observed patterns of immigration. Three temperature regimes: hot, moderate and cold, were defined by ranking and splitting the years from 1965 to 1992 according to the mean temperature between April and August. The temperature data from the years assigned to each regime were then used to formulate an equation to describe the daily temperatures within the five months. The model was run for each regime, and the output showed that both coccinellid predation and increased temperatures caused a decrease in aphid abundance. The model also highlighted several more subtle effects of increased temperature on the interaction between S. avenae and C. septempunctata. The importance of the model predictions for future control of aphid populations in cereal crops is discussed.
format	Thesis (University of Nottingham only)
author	Skirvin, David John
spellingShingle	Skirvin, David John Simulating the effects of climate change on Sitobion avenae F. (Homoptera: Aphididae) and Coccinella septempunctata L. (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)
author_facet	Skirvin, David John
author_sort	Skirvin, David John
title	Simulating the effects of climate change on Sitobion avenae F. (Homoptera: Aphididae) and Coccinella septempunctata L. (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)
title_short	Simulating the effects of climate change on Sitobion avenae F. (Homoptera: Aphididae) and Coccinella septempunctata L. (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)
title_full	Simulating the effects of climate change on Sitobion avenae F. (Homoptera: Aphididae) and Coccinella septempunctata L. (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)
title_fullStr	Simulating the effects of climate change on Sitobion avenae F. (Homoptera: Aphididae) and Coccinella septempunctata L. (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)
title_full_unstemmed	Simulating the effects of climate change on Sitobion avenae F. (Homoptera: Aphididae) and Coccinella septempunctata L. (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)
title_sort	simulating the effects of climate change on sitobion avenae f. (homoptera: aphididae) and coccinella septempunctata l. (coleoptera: coccinellidae)
publishDate	1995
url	http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/12704/ http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/12704/1/308923.pdf
first_indexed	2018-09-06T10:47:42Z
last_indexed	2018-09-06T10:47:42Z
_version_	1610854813300424704

Simulating the effects of climate change on Sitobion avenae F. (Homoptera: Aphididae) and Coccinella septempunctata L. (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)

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