Forecasting modelling of cockles in Malaysia by using time series analysis
Cockle farmed in Malaysia are from Anadara genes and Arcidae family which known as blood cockle. Normally, it was found in the farmed around mangrove estuary areas in the muddy and sandy shores. This study aims to predict the production of cockle to ensure sure the cockle supplies are synchronised w...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
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Science Publishing Corporation
2018
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| Online Access: | http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/5124/ |
| _version_ | 1848888470670409728 |
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| author | Ngali, Zamani Jemain, Noratika Budi Chang, An Wee Abdol Rahman, Mohd Nasrull Kaharuddin, Muhammad Zulhilmi Khairu Razak, Siti Badriah |
| author_facet | Ngali, Zamani Jemain, Noratika Budi Chang, An Wee Abdol Rahman, Mohd Nasrull Kaharuddin, Muhammad Zulhilmi Khairu Razak, Siti Badriah |
| author_sort | Ngali, Zamani |
| building | UTHM Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Cockle farmed in Malaysia are from Anadara genes and Arcidae family which known as blood cockle. Normally, it was found in the farmed around mangrove estuary areas in the muddy and sandy shores. This study aims to predict the production of cockle to ensure sure the cockle supplies are synchronised with the demand. Then, based on the demand, the prediction result could be used to make decision either to import or export the cockle. The data were taken from the Department of Fisheries Malaysia (DFM) and it has cyclic pattern data. There are two methods used in this study which are Holt-Linear method and Auto regressive moving average (ARMA). In determining the best fitted model between the two methods, the mean square error (MSE) values will be compared and the lowest value of MSE will assign as the best model. Result shows that ARMA(1,1) is the best model compared to Holt-Linear. Therefore, ARMA(1,1) model will be used to forecast the production of cockle in Malaysia. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T20:10:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | uthm-5124 |
| institution | Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T20:10:48Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Science Publishing Corporation |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | uthm-51242022-01-06T01:48:23Z http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/5124/ Forecasting modelling of cockles in Malaysia by using time series analysis Ngali, Zamani Jemain, Noratika Budi Chang, An Wee Abdol Rahman, Mohd Nasrull Kaharuddin, Muhammad Zulhilmi Khairu Razak, Siti Badriah TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) QA299.6-433 Analysis TA329-348 Engineering mathematics. Engineering analysis Cockle farmed in Malaysia are from Anadara genes and Arcidae family which known as blood cockle. Normally, it was found in the farmed around mangrove estuary areas in the muddy and sandy shores. This study aims to predict the production of cockle to ensure sure the cockle supplies are synchronised with the demand. Then, based on the demand, the prediction result could be used to make decision either to import or export the cockle. The data were taken from the Department of Fisheries Malaysia (DFM) and it has cyclic pattern data. There are two methods used in this study which are Holt-Linear method and Auto regressive moving average (ARMA). In determining the best fitted model between the two methods, the mean square error (MSE) values will be compared and the lowest value of MSE will assign as the best model. Result shows that ARMA(1,1) is the best model compared to Holt-Linear. Therefore, ARMA(1,1) model will be used to forecast the production of cockle in Malaysia. Science Publishing Corporation 2018 Article PeerReviewed Ngali, Zamani and Jemain, Noratika Budi and Chang, An Wee and Abdol Rahman, Mohd Nasrull and Kaharuddin, Muhammad Zulhilmi and Khairu Razak, Siti Badriah (2018) Forecasting modelling of cockles in Malaysia by using time series analysis. International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 7 (4.3). pp. 488-491. ISSN 2227-524X |
| spellingShingle | TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) QA299.6-433 Analysis TA329-348 Engineering mathematics. Engineering analysis Ngali, Zamani Jemain, Noratika Budi Chang, An Wee Abdol Rahman, Mohd Nasrull Kaharuddin, Muhammad Zulhilmi Khairu Razak, Siti Badriah Forecasting modelling of cockles in Malaysia by using time series analysis |
| title | Forecasting modelling of cockles in Malaysia by using time series analysis |
| title_full | Forecasting modelling of cockles in Malaysia by using time series analysis |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting modelling of cockles in Malaysia by using time series analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting modelling of cockles in Malaysia by using time series analysis |
| title_short | Forecasting modelling of cockles in Malaysia by using time series analysis |
| title_sort | forecasting modelling of cockles in malaysia by using time series analysis |
| topic | TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) QA299.6-433 Analysis TA329-348 Engineering mathematics. Engineering analysis |
| url | http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/5124/ |