Malaysia tourism demand forecasting using box-jenkins approach
Tourism industry in Malaysia is crucial and has contributes a huge part in Malaysia’s economic growth. The capability of forecasting field in tourism industry can assist people who work in tourism-related-business to make a correct judgment and plan future strategy by providing the accurate forecast...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
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Science Publishing Corporation
2018
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| Online Access: | http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/4565/ |
| _version_ | 1848888321316487168 |
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| author | Amir Hamzah, Diyana Izyan Nor, Maria Elena Saharan, Sabariah Mohd Hamdan, Noor Fariza Izzati Nohamad, Nurul Asmaa |
| author_facet | Amir Hamzah, Diyana Izyan Nor, Maria Elena Saharan, Sabariah Mohd Hamdan, Noor Fariza Izzati Nohamad, Nurul Asmaa |
| author_sort | Amir Hamzah, Diyana Izyan |
| building | UTHM Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Tourism industry in Malaysia is crucial and has contributes a huge part in Malaysia’s economic growth. The capability of forecasting field in tourism industry can assist people who work in tourism-related-business to make a correct judgment and plan future strategy by providing the accurate forecast values of the future tourism demand. Therefore, this research paper was focusing on tourism demand forecasting by applying Box-Jenkins approach on tourists arrival data in Malaysia from 1998 until 2017. This research paper also was aiming to produce the accurate forecast values. In order to achieve that, the error of forecast for each model from Box-Jenkins approach was measured and compared by using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Model that produced the lowest error was chosen to forecast Malaysia tourism demand data. Several candidate models have been proposed during analysis but the final model selected was SARIMA (1,1,1)(1,1,4)12. It is hoped that this research will be useful in forecasting field and tourism industry. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T20:08:25Z |
| format | Article |
| id | uthm-4565 |
| institution | Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T20:08:25Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Science Publishing Corporation |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | uthm-45652021-12-07T07:35:30Z http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/4565/ Malaysia tourism demand forecasting using box-jenkins approach Amir Hamzah, Diyana Izyan Nor, Maria Elena Saharan, Sabariah Mohd Hamdan, Noor Fariza Izzati Nohamad, Nurul Asmaa G154.9 - 155.8 Travel and state. Tourism TA329-348 Engineering mathematics. Engineering analysis Tourism industry in Malaysia is crucial and has contributes a huge part in Malaysia’s economic growth. The capability of forecasting field in tourism industry can assist people who work in tourism-related-business to make a correct judgment and plan future strategy by providing the accurate forecast values of the future tourism demand. Therefore, this research paper was focusing on tourism demand forecasting by applying Box-Jenkins approach on tourists arrival data in Malaysia from 1998 until 2017. This research paper also was aiming to produce the accurate forecast values. In order to achieve that, the error of forecast for each model from Box-Jenkins approach was measured and compared by using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Model that produced the lowest error was chosen to forecast Malaysia tourism demand data. Several candidate models have been proposed during analysis but the final model selected was SARIMA (1,1,1)(1,1,4)12. It is hoped that this research will be useful in forecasting field and tourism industry. Science Publishing Corporation 2018 Article PeerReviewed Amir Hamzah, Diyana Izyan and Nor, Maria Elena and Saharan, Sabariah and Mohd Hamdan, Noor Fariza and Izzati Nohamad, Nurul Asmaa (2018) Malaysia tourism demand forecasting using box-jenkins approach. International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 7 (4.3). pp. 454-457. ISSN 2227-524X |
| spellingShingle | G154.9 - 155.8 Travel and state. Tourism TA329-348 Engineering mathematics. Engineering analysis Amir Hamzah, Diyana Izyan Nor, Maria Elena Saharan, Sabariah Mohd Hamdan, Noor Fariza Izzati Nohamad, Nurul Asmaa Malaysia tourism demand forecasting using box-jenkins approach |
| title | Malaysia tourism demand forecasting using box-jenkins approach |
| title_full | Malaysia tourism demand forecasting using box-jenkins approach |
| title_fullStr | Malaysia tourism demand forecasting using box-jenkins approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Malaysia tourism demand forecasting using box-jenkins approach |
| title_short | Malaysia tourism demand forecasting using box-jenkins approach |
| title_sort | malaysia tourism demand forecasting using box-jenkins approach |
| topic | G154.9 - 155.8 Travel and state. Tourism TA329-348 Engineering mathematics. Engineering analysis |
| url | http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/4565/ |