Markov chain-mixed exponential model for daily rainfall in Hong Kong

In this study, we applied a stochastic rainfall model which is capable in generating synthetic daily rainfall sequences that exhibit similar characteristics to observed data, thereby assessing the amount of rainfall over a specific period. The model utilized for this purpose is the Markov Chain Mi...

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Main Author: Xu, YuChen
Format: Final Year Project / Dissertation / Thesis
Published: 2023
Subjects:
Online Access:http://eprints.utar.edu.my/6334/
http://eprints.utar.edu.my/6334/1/Project_Report_XuYuchen_.pdf
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author Xu, YuChen
author_facet Xu, YuChen
author_sort Xu, YuChen
building UTAR Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description In this study, we applied a stochastic rainfall model which is capable in generating synthetic daily rainfall sequences that exhibit similar characteristics to observed data, thereby assessing the amount of rainfall over a specific period. The model utilized for this purpose is the Markov Chain Mixing Index (MCME). This model integrates both rainfall occurrence, represented by a first-order two-state Markov chain, and rainfall distribution, described by a mixture index distribution. The feasibility of the MCME model was evaluated using daily rainfall data collected from 15 stations in Hong Kong over a 20-year record period (2003-2022). The evaluation revealed that the proposed MCME model adequately captures both the occurrence and quantity of rainfall across all stations. Various statistical analysis were implemented to analyze the rainfall data. In conclusion, the validation results indicate that while the model effectively describes the characteristics of rainfall and able to simulate the rainfall based on the parameters estimated.
first_indexed 2025-11-15T19:41:51Z
format Final Year Project / Dissertation / Thesis
id utar-6334
institution Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman
institution_category Local University
last_indexed 2025-11-15T19:41:51Z
publishDate 2023
recordtype eprints
repository_type Digital Repository
spelling utar-63342024-04-14T09:59:47Z Markov chain-mixed exponential model for daily rainfall in Hong Kong Xu, YuChen HA Statistics QA Mathematics In this study, we applied a stochastic rainfall model which is capable in generating synthetic daily rainfall sequences that exhibit similar characteristics to observed data, thereby assessing the amount of rainfall over a specific period. The model utilized for this purpose is the Markov Chain Mixing Index (MCME). This model integrates both rainfall occurrence, represented by a first-order two-state Markov chain, and rainfall distribution, described by a mixture index distribution. The feasibility of the MCME model was evaluated using daily rainfall data collected from 15 stations in Hong Kong over a 20-year record period (2003-2022). The evaluation revealed that the proposed MCME model adequately captures both the occurrence and quantity of rainfall across all stations. Various statistical analysis were implemented to analyze the rainfall data. In conclusion, the validation results indicate that while the model effectively describes the characteristics of rainfall and able to simulate the rainfall based on the parameters estimated. 2023 Final Year Project / Dissertation / Thesis NonPeerReviewed application/pdf http://eprints.utar.edu.my/6334/1/Project_Report_XuYuchen_.pdf Xu, YuChen (2023) Markov chain-mixed exponential model for daily rainfall in Hong Kong. Master dissertation/thesis, UTAR. http://eprints.utar.edu.my/6334/
spellingShingle HA Statistics
QA Mathematics
Xu, YuChen
Markov chain-mixed exponential model for daily rainfall in Hong Kong
title Markov chain-mixed exponential model for daily rainfall in Hong Kong
title_full Markov chain-mixed exponential model for daily rainfall in Hong Kong
title_fullStr Markov chain-mixed exponential model for daily rainfall in Hong Kong
title_full_unstemmed Markov chain-mixed exponential model for daily rainfall in Hong Kong
title_short Markov chain-mixed exponential model for daily rainfall in Hong Kong
title_sort markov chain-mixed exponential model for daily rainfall in hong kong
topic HA Statistics
QA Mathematics
url http://eprints.utar.edu.my/6334/
http://eprints.utar.edu.my/6334/1/Project_Report_XuYuchen_.pdf