Hybridization Model For Capturing Long Memory And Volatility Of Brent Crude Oil Price Data

The Brent crude oil price indices are typically nonlinear, nonstationary, and non-normal behavior with a long memory and high heteroscedasticity; hence, capturing the controlling properties of their changes is difficult. Subsequently, these phenomena weaken the validity and the accuracy of the re...

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Main Author: Al-Gounmeein, Remal Shaher Hussien
Format: Thesis
Language:English
Published: 2022
Subjects:
Online Access:http://eprints.usm.my/59225/
http://eprints.usm.my/59225/1/REMAL%20SHAHER%20HUSSIEN%20AL-GOUNMEEIN%20-%20TESIS%20cut.pdf
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author Al-Gounmeein, Remal Shaher Hussien
author_facet Al-Gounmeein, Remal Shaher Hussien
author_sort Al-Gounmeein, Remal Shaher Hussien
building USM Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description The Brent crude oil price indices are typically nonlinear, nonstationary, and non-normal behavior with a long memory and high heteroscedasticity; hence, capturing the controlling properties of their changes is difficult. Subsequently, these phenomena weaken the validity and the accuracy of the result of the forecasting methods. Therefore, this study focuses on the hybridization method to capture long memory behavior and heteroscedasticity in the dataset and improve Brent crude oil price forecasting accuracy. Recently, the hybridization method for the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model has been introduced as an effective technique for overcoming the nonlinear, nonstationary, and non-normal behavior with high heteroscedasticity in a time series dataset. ARFIMA hybridization method presents several characteristics that other traditional methods do not have. Thus, this thesis proposed three new models and employed 12 different techniques based on combining and hybridizing the ARFIMA model with traditional forecasting techniques to forecast the Brent crude oil price. The three new models, namely, ARFIMA with the asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARFIMA-APARCH), ARFIMA with the Glosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARFIMA-GJRGARCH), and ARFIMA with the component standard GARCH (ARFIMA-csGARCH) are proposed. This proposal aims to obtain improved forecasting results and solve the forecasting inaccuracy problem in oil price series.
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spelling usm-592252023-08-23T02:16:28Z http://eprints.usm.my/59225/ Hybridization Model For Capturing Long Memory And Volatility Of Brent Crude Oil Price Data Al-Gounmeein, Remal Shaher Hussien QA1 Mathematics (General) The Brent crude oil price indices are typically nonlinear, nonstationary, and non-normal behavior with a long memory and high heteroscedasticity; hence, capturing the controlling properties of their changes is difficult. Subsequently, these phenomena weaken the validity and the accuracy of the result of the forecasting methods. Therefore, this study focuses on the hybridization method to capture long memory behavior and heteroscedasticity in the dataset and improve Brent crude oil price forecasting accuracy. Recently, the hybridization method for the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model has been introduced as an effective technique for overcoming the nonlinear, nonstationary, and non-normal behavior with high heteroscedasticity in a time series dataset. ARFIMA hybridization method presents several characteristics that other traditional methods do not have. Thus, this thesis proposed three new models and employed 12 different techniques based on combining and hybridizing the ARFIMA model with traditional forecasting techniques to forecast the Brent crude oil price. The three new models, namely, ARFIMA with the asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARFIMA-APARCH), ARFIMA with the Glosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARFIMA-GJRGARCH), and ARFIMA with the component standard GARCH (ARFIMA-csGARCH) are proposed. This proposal aims to obtain improved forecasting results and solve the forecasting inaccuracy problem in oil price series. 2022-07 Thesis NonPeerReviewed application/pdf en http://eprints.usm.my/59225/1/REMAL%20SHAHER%20HUSSIEN%20AL-GOUNMEEIN%20-%20TESIS%20cut.pdf Al-Gounmeein, Remal Shaher Hussien (2022) Hybridization Model For Capturing Long Memory And Volatility Of Brent Crude Oil Price Data. PhD thesis, Universiti Sains Malaysia.
spellingShingle QA1 Mathematics (General)
Al-Gounmeein, Remal Shaher Hussien
Hybridization Model For Capturing Long Memory And Volatility Of Brent Crude Oil Price Data
title Hybridization Model For Capturing Long Memory And Volatility Of Brent Crude Oil Price Data
title_full Hybridization Model For Capturing Long Memory And Volatility Of Brent Crude Oil Price Data
title_fullStr Hybridization Model For Capturing Long Memory And Volatility Of Brent Crude Oil Price Data
title_full_unstemmed Hybridization Model For Capturing Long Memory And Volatility Of Brent Crude Oil Price Data
title_short Hybridization Model For Capturing Long Memory And Volatility Of Brent Crude Oil Price Data
title_sort hybridization model for capturing long memory and volatility of brent crude oil price data
topic QA1 Mathematics (General)
url http://eprints.usm.my/59225/
http://eprints.usm.my/59225/1/REMAL%20SHAHER%20HUSSIEN%20AL-GOUNMEEIN%20-%20TESIS%20cut.pdf