Application of statistical distribution models to predict health index for condition-based management of transformers

In this study, statistical distribution model (SDM) is used to predict the health index (HI) of transformers by utilizing the condition parameters data from dissolved gas analysis (DGA), oil quality analysis (OQA), and furanic compound analysis (FCA), respectively. First, the individual condition pa...

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Main Authors: Mohd Selva, Amran, Azis, Norhafiz, Shariffudin, Nor Shafiqin, Ab Kadir, Mohd Zainal Abidin, Jasni, Jasronita, Yahaya, Muhammad Sharil, Talib, Mohd Aizam
Format: Article
Published: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute 2021
Online Access:http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/95960/
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author Mohd Selva, Amran
Azis, Norhafiz
Shariffudin, Nor Shafiqin
Ab Kadir, Mohd Zainal Abidin
Jasni, Jasronita
Yahaya, Muhammad Sharil
Talib, Mohd Aizam
author_facet Mohd Selva, Amran
Azis, Norhafiz
Shariffudin, Nor Shafiqin
Ab Kadir, Mohd Zainal Abidin
Jasni, Jasronita
Yahaya, Muhammad Sharil
Talib, Mohd Aizam
author_sort Mohd Selva, Amran
building UPM Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description In this study, statistical distribution model (SDM) is used to predict the health index (HI) of transformers by utilizing the condition parameters data from dissolved gas analysis (DGA), oil quality analysis (OQA), and furanic compound analysis (FCA), respectively. First, the individual condition parameters data were categorized based on transformer age from year 1 to 15. Next, the individual condition parameters data for every age were fitted while using a probability plot to find the representative distribution models. The distribution parameters were calculated based on 95% confidence level and extrapolated from year 16 to 25 through representative fitting models. The individual condition parameters data within the period were later calculated based on the estimated distribution parameters through the inverse cumulative distribution function (ICDF) of the selected distribution models. The predicted HI was then determined based on the conventional scoring method. The Chi-square test for statistical hypothesis reveals that the predicted HI for the transformer data is quite close to the calculated HI. The average percentage of absolute error is 2.7%. The HI that is predicted based on SDM yields 97.83% accuracy for the transformer data.
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format Article
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institution Universiti Putra Malaysia
institution_category Local University
last_indexed 2025-11-15T13:14:15Z
publishDate 2021
publisher Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
recordtype eprints
repository_type Digital Repository
spelling upm-959602023-03-16T02:37:20Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/95960/ Application of statistical distribution models to predict health index for condition-based management of transformers Mohd Selva, Amran Azis, Norhafiz Shariffudin, Nor Shafiqin Ab Kadir, Mohd Zainal Abidin Jasni, Jasronita Yahaya, Muhammad Sharil Talib, Mohd Aizam In this study, statistical distribution model (SDM) is used to predict the health index (HI) of transformers by utilizing the condition parameters data from dissolved gas analysis (DGA), oil quality analysis (OQA), and furanic compound analysis (FCA), respectively. First, the individual condition parameters data were categorized based on transformer age from year 1 to 15. Next, the individual condition parameters data for every age were fitted while using a probability plot to find the representative distribution models. The distribution parameters were calculated based on 95% confidence level and extrapolated from year 16 to 25 through representative fitting models. The individual condition parameters data within the period were later calculated based on the estimated distribution parameters through the inverse cumulative distribution function (ICDF) of the selected distribution models. The predicted HI was then determined based on the conventional scoring method. The Chi-square test for statistical hypothesis reveals that the predicted HI for the transformer data is quite close to the calculated HI. The average percentage of absolute error is 2.7%. The HI that is predicted based on SDM yields 97.83% accuracy for the transformer data. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute 2021 Article PeerReviewed Mohd Selva, Amran and Azis, Norhafiz and Shariffudin, Nor Shafiqin and Ab Kadir, Mohd Zainal Abidin and Jasni, Jasronita and Yahaya, Muhammad Sharil and Talib, Mohd Aizam (2021) Application of statistical distribution models to predict health index for condition-based management of transformers. Applied Sciences-Basel, 11 (6). art. no. 2728. pp. 1-20. ISSN 2076-3417 https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/6/2728 10.3390/app11062728
spellingShingle Mohd Selva, Amran
Azis, Norhafiz
Shariffudin, Nor Shafiqin
Ab Kadir, Mohd Zainal Abidin
Jasni, Jasronita
Yahaya, Muhammad Sharil
Talib, Mohd Aizam
Application of statistical distribution models to predict health index for condition-based management of transformers
title Application of statistical distribution models to predict health index for condition-based management of transformers
title_full Application of statistical distribution models to predict health index for condition-based management of transformers
title_fullStr Application of statistical distribution models to predict health index for condition-based management of transformers
title_full_unstemmed Application of statistical distribution models to predict health index for condition-based management of transformers
title_short Application of statistical distribution models to predict health index for condition-based management of transformers
title_sort application of statistical distribution models to predict health index for condition-based management of transformers
url http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/95960/
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/95960/
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/95960/