Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries
This study attempts to find the best model to forecast international tourism demand using a series of key macroeconomic variables in ASEAN countries. Generally, we find that generalized Poisson regression model is the best one for estimating long-run international tourism demand. In addition, we fin...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Science Publications
2015
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| Online Access: | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/71010/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/71010/1/ajassp.2015.479.486 |
| _version_ | 1848856854879272960 |
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| author | Karimi, Asrin Faroughi, Pouya Abdul Rahim, Khalid |
| author_facet | Karimi, Asrin Faroughi, Pouya Abdul Rahim, Khalid |
| author_sort | Karimi, Asrin |
| building | UPM Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | This study attempts to find the best model to forecast international tourism demand using a series of key macroeconomic variables in ASEAN countries. Generally, we find that generalized Poisson regression model is the best one for estimating long-run international tourism demand. In addition, we find that inflation and real exchange rate have negative relationship with international tourism demand. On the other hand, foreign direct investment and openness of trade have positive relationship with international tourism demand. Cointegration test result shows that there is a long-run relationship between variables. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T11:48:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | upm-71010 |
| institution | Universiti Putra Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T11:48:17Z |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publisher | Science Publications |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | upm-710102019-09-10T06:14:51Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/71010/ Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries Karimi, Asrin Faroughi, Pouya Abdul Rahim, Khalid This study attempts to find the best model to forecast international tourism demand using a series of key macroeconomic variables in ASEAN countries. Generally, we find that generalized Poisson regression model is the best one for estimating long-run international tourism demand. In addition, we find that inflation and real exchange rate have negative relationship with international tourism demand. On the other hand, foreign direct investment and openness of trade have positive relationship with international tourism demand. Cointegration test result shows that there is a long-run relationship between variables. Science Publications 2015 Article PeerReviewed text en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/71010/1/ajassp.2015.479.486 Karimi, Asrin and Faroughi, Pouya and Abdul Rahim, Khalid (2015) Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 12 (7). pp. 479-486. ISSN 1546-9239; ESSN: 1554-3641 https://thescipub.com/abstract/10.3844/ajassp.2015.479.486 10.3844/ajassp.2015.479.486 |
| spellingShingle | Karimi, Asrin Faroughi, Pouya Abdul Rahim, Khalid Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries |
| title | Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries |
| title_full | Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries |
| title_fullStr | Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries |
| title_short | Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries |
| title_sort | modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in asean countries |
| url | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/71010/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/71010/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/71010/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/71010/1/ajassp.2015.479.486 |