Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio
The creation of an accurate simulation of future urban growth is considered one of the most important challenges in urban studies that involve spatial modeling. The purpose of this study is to improve the simulation capability of an integrated CA-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model using CA-MC based on the A...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2017
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| Online Access: | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/62126/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/62126/1/Improving%20the%20capability%20of%20an%20integrated%20CA-Markov%20model%20.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848854564887855104 |
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| author | Aburas, Maher Milad M. Ho, Yuek Ming Ramli, Mohammad Firuz Ash’aari, Zulfa Hanan |
| author_facet | Aburas, Maher Milad M. Ho, Yuek Ming Ramli, Mohammad Firuz Ash’aari, Zulfa Hanan |
| author_sort | Aburas, Maher Milad M. |
| building | UPM Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | The creation of an accurate simulation of future urban growth is considered one of the most important challenges in urban studies that involve spatial modeling. The purpose of this study is to improve the simulation capability of an integrated CA-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model using CA-MC based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and CA-MC based on Frequency Ratio (FR), both applied in Seremban, Malaysia, as well as to compare the performance and accuracy between the traditional and hybrid models. Various physical, socio-economic, utilities, and environmental criteria were used as predictors, including elevation, slope, soil texture, population density, distance to commercial area, distance to educational area, distance to residential area, distance to industrial area, distance to roads, distance to highway, distance to railway, distance to power line, distance to stream, and land cover. For calibration, three models were applied to simulate urban growth trends in 2010; the actual data of 2010 were used for model validation utilizing the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Kappa coefficient methods Consequently, future urban growth maps of 2020 and 2030 were created. The validation findings confirm that the integration of the CA-MC model with the FR model and employing the significant driving force of urban growth in the simulation process have resulted in the improved simulation capability of the CA-MC model. This study has provided a novel approach for improving the CA-MC model based on FR, which will provide powerful support to planners and decision-makers in the development of future sustainable urban planning. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T11:11:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | upm-62126 |
| institution | Universiti Putra Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T11:11:53Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | upm-621262019-04-15T04:29:18Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/62126/ Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio Aburas, Maher Milad M. Ho, Yuek Ming Ramli, Mohammad Firuz Ash’aari, Zulfa Hanan The creation of an accurate simulation of future urban growth is considered one of the most important challenges in urban studies that involve spatial modeling. The purpose of this study is to improve the simulation capability of an integrated CA-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model using CA-MC based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and CA-MC based on Frequency Ratio (FR), both applied in Seremban, Malaysia, as well as to compare the performance and accuracy between the traditional and hybrid models. Various physical, socio-economic, utilities, and environmental criteria were used as predictors, including elevation, slope, soil texture, population density, distance to commercial area, distance to educational area, distance to residential area, distance to industrial area, distance to roads, distance to highway, distance to railway, distance to power line, distance to stream, and land cover. For calibration, three models were applied to simulate urban growth trends in 2010; the actual data of 2010 were used for model validation utilizing the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Kappa coefficient methods Consequently, future urban growth maps of 2020 and 2030 were created. The validation findings confirm that the integration of the CA-MC model with the FR model and employing the significant driving force of urban growth in the simulation process have resulted in the improved simulation capability of the CA-MC model. This study has provided a novel approach for improving the CA-MC model based on FR, which will provide powerful support to planners and decision-makers in the development of future sustainable urban planning. Elsevier 2017-07 Article PeerReviewed text en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/62126/1/Improving%20the%20capability%20of%20an%20integrated%20CA-Markov%20model%20.pdf Aburas, Maher Milad M. and Ho, Yuek Ming and Ramli, Mohammad Firuz and Ash’aari, Zulfa Hanan (2017) Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 59. 65 - 78. ISSN 0303-2434; ESSN: 1872-826X https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0303243417300697 10.1016/j.jag.2017.03.006 |
| spellingShingle | Aburas, Maher Milad M. Ho, Yuek Ming Ramli, Mohammad Firuz Ash’aari, Zulfa Hanan Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio |
| title | Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio |
| title_full | Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio |
| title_fullStr | Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio |
| title_full_unstemmed | Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio |
| title_short | Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio |
| title_sort | improving the capability of an integrated ca-markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an analytical hierarchy process and frequency ratio |
| url | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/62126/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/62126/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/62126/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/62126/1/Improving%20the%20capability%20of%20an%20integrated%20CA-Markov%20model%20.pdf |