Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load
Malaysia is a unique country due to having both fixed and moving holidays. These moving holidays may overlap with other fixed holidays and therefore, increase the complexity of the load forecasting activities. The errors due to holidays’ effects in the load forecasting are known to be higher than o...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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College of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of the Punjab
2014
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| Online Access: | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/37174/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/37174/1/Dynamic%20regression%20intervention%20modeling%20for%20the%20Malaysian%20daily%20load.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848848537595412480 |
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| author | Abd. Razak, Fadhilah Shitan, Mahendran Hashim, Amir Hisham Zainal Abidin, Izham |
| author_facet | Abd. Razak, Fadhilah Shitan, Mahendran Hashim, Amir Hisham Zainal Abidin, Izham |
| author_sort | Abd. Razak, Fadhilah |
| building | UPM Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Malaysia is a unique country due to having both fixed and moving holidays. These moving holidays may overlap with other fixed holidays and therefore, increase the complexity of the load forecasting activities. The errors due to holidays’ effects in the load forecasting are known to be higher than other factors. If these effects can be estimated and removed, the behavior of the series could be better viewed. Thus, the aim of this paper is to improve the forecasting errors by using a dynamic regression model with intervention analysis. Based on the linear transfer function method, a daily load model consists of either peak or average is developed. The developed model outperformed the seasonal ARIMA model in estimating the fixed and moving holidays’ effects and achieved a smaller Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in load forecast. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T09:36:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | upm-37174 |
| institution | Universiti Putra Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T09:36:05Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publisher | College of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of the Punjab |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | upm-371742015-08-27T06:58:39Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/37174/ Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load Abd. Razak, Fadhilah Shitan, Mahendran Hashim, Amir Hisham Zainal Abidin, Izham Malaysia is a unique country due to having both fixed and moving holidays. These moving holidays may overlap with other fixed holidays and therefore, increase the complexity of the load forecasting activities. The errors due to holidays’ effects in the load forecasting are known to be higher than other factors. If these effects can be estimated and removed, the behavior of the series could be better viewed. Thus, the aim of this paper is to improve the forecasting errors by using a dynamic regression model with intervention analysis. Based on the linear transfer function method, a daily load model consists of either peak or average is developed. The developed model outperformed the seasonal ARIMA model in estimating the fixed and moving holidays’ effects and achieved a smaller Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in load forecast. College of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of the Punjab 2014 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/37174/1/Dynamic%20regression%20intervention%20modeling%20for%20the%20Malaysian%20daily%20load.pdf Abd. Razak, Fadhilah and Shitan, Mahendran and Hashim, Amir Hisham and Zainal Abidin, Izham (2014) Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load. Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research, 10 (1). pp. 41-55. ISSN 1816-2711; ESSN: 2220-5810 http://www.pjsor.com/index.php/pjsor/article/view/600 |
| spellingShingle | Abd. Razak, Fadhilah Shitan, Mahendran Hashim, Amir Hisham Zainal Abidin, Izham Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load |
| title | Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load |
| title_full | Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load |
| title_fullStr | Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load |
| title_short | Dynamic regression intervention modeling for the Malaysian daily load |
| title_sort | dynamic regression intervention modeling for the malaysian daily load |
| url | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/37174/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/37174/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/37174/1/Dynamic%20regression%20intervention%20modeling%20for%20the%20Malaysian%20daily%20load.pdf |