Forecasting monthly data using total and split exponential smoothing
In the motion picture industry, the movie market players always rely on accurate demand forecasts. Distributors require the demand forecasts to make decisions such as marketing strategy and costs, number of screens, and release timing. Movie demand is known to show seasonality. Thus, forecasting met...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malaysia
2018
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| Online Access: | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/22651/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/22651/1/27%29%20Forecasting%20Monthly%20Data.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848844543199281152 |
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| author | Mak, Kit Mun Choo, Wei Chong Md Nassir, Annuar |
| author_facet | Mak, Kit Mun Choo, Wei Chong Md Nassir, Annuar |
| author_sort | Mak, Kit Mun |
| building | UPM Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | In the motion picture industry, the movie market players always rely on accurate demand forecasts. Distributors require the demand forecasts to make decisions such as marketing strategy and costs, number of screens, and release timing. Movie demand is known to show seasonality. Thus, forecasting methods which are able to capture such patterns can be relied on to produce an accurate prediction. In this paper, we study the performance of the recently proposed exponential smoothing method. It is known as total and split exponential smoothing, and applies it to box office from the United States on monthly basis. The forecasts are evaluated against other seasonal exponential smoothing methods. Overall, total and split exponential smoothing with subjectively chosen parameters was performing well, followed by seasonal damped trend exponential smoothing method (DA-M). |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T08:32:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | upm-22651 |
| institution | Universiti Putra Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T08:32:35Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malaysia |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | upm-226512019-11-12T07:24:03Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/22651/ Forecasting monthly data using total and split exponential smoothing Mak, Kit Mun Choo, Wei Chong Md Nassir, Annuar In the motion picture industry, the movie market players always rely on accurate demand forecasts. Distributors require the demand forecasts to make decisions such as marketing strategy and costs, number of screens, and release timing. Movie demand is known to show seasonality. Thus, forecasting methods which are able to capture such patterns can be relied on to produce an accurate prediction. In this paper, we study the performance of the recently proposed exponential smoothing method. It is known as total and split exponential smoothing, and applies it to box office from the United States on monthly basis. The forecasts are evaluated against other seasonal exponential smoothing methods. Overall, total and split exponential smoothing with subjectively chosen parameters was performing well, followed by seasonal damped trend exponential smoothing method (DA-M). Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malaysia 2018 Article PeerReviewed text en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/22651/1/27%29%20Forecasting%20Monthly%20Data.pdf Mak, Kit Mun and Choo, Wei Chong and Md Nassir, Annuar (2018) Forecasting monthly data using total and split exponential smoothing. International Journal of Economics and Management, 12 (spec. 2). pp. 673-685. ISSN 1823-836X; ESSN: 2600-9390 http://www.ijem.upm.edu.my/vol12_noS2/27)%20Forecasting%20Monthly%20Data.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Mak, Kit Mun Choo, Wei Chong Md Nassir, Annuar Forecasting monthly data using total and split exponential smoothing |
| title | Forecasting monthly data using total and split exponential smoothing |
| title_full | Forecasting monthly data using total and split exponential smoothing |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting monthly data using total and split exponential smoothing |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting monthly data using total and split exponential smoothing |
| title_short | Forecasting monthly data using total and split exponential smoothing |
| title_sort | forecasting monthly data using total and split exponential smoothing |
| url | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/22651/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/22651/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/22651/1/27%29%20Forecasting%20Monthly%20Data.pdf |