Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis.
In this study we analyse tuberculosis (TB) data from Jabatan Kesihatan Negeri Terengganu (2008) by applying linear trend, quadratic trend, simple moving average, simple exponential smoothing and Holt’s trend corrected exponential smoothing. Accuracy of these time series approaches are measured by c...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English English |
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Science Society of Thailand
2009
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| Online Access: | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17488/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17488/7/Tuberculosis%20in%20the%20Terengganu%20region.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848843255282663424 |
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| author | Kilicman, Adem Mohd Roslan, Ummu Atiqah |
| author_facet | Kilicman, Adem Mohd Roslan, Ummu Atiqah |
| author_sort | Kilicman, Adem |
| building | UPM Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | In this study we analyse tuberculosis (TB) data from Jabatan Kesihatan Negeri Terengganu (2008) by applying linear trend, quadratic trend, simple moving average, simple exponential smoothing and Holt’s trend corrected
exponential smoothing. Accuracy of these time series approaches are measured by computing the variance between the extrapolation model and the actual data. The study shows that Holt’s trend corrected exponential smoothing is the best forecasting model, followed by the quadratic trend model. The results also show that people aged between 35–44 years old,male, Malay, unemployed or have an income lower than RM 1000 per month are in a high risk group to be infected by TB.We also forecast TB cases for 2009 until 2013 and the result suggests that the numbers of TB cases are expected to increase. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T08:12:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | upm-17488 |
| institution | Universiti Putra Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T08:12:07Z |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publisher | Science Society of Thailand |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | upm-174882015-09-28T03:25:10Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17488/ Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis. Kilicman, Adem Mohd Roslan, Ummu Atiqah In this study we analyse tuberculosis (TB) data from Jabatan Kesihatan Negeri Terengganu (2008) by applying linear trend, quadratic trend, simple moving average, simple exponential smoothing and Holt’s trend corrected exponential smoothing. Accuracy of these time series approaches are measured by computing the variance between the extrapolation model and the actual data. The study shows that Holt’s trend corrected exponential smoothing is the best forecasting model, followed by the quadratic trend model. The results also show that people aged between 35–44 years old,male, Malay, unemployed or have an income lower than RM 1000 per month are in a high risk group to be infected by TB.We also forecast TB cases for 2009 until 2013 and the result suggests that the numbers of TB cases are expected to increase. Science Society of Thailand 2009 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17488/7/Tuberculosis%20in%20the%20Terengganu%20region.pdf Kilicman, Adem and Mohd Roslan, Ummu Atiqah (2009) Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis. ScienceAsia, 35 (4). pp. 392-395. ISSN 1513-1874 Tuberculosis. Tuberculosis - Malaysia - Terengganu - Statistics. 10.2306/scienceasia1513-1874.2009.35.392 English |
| spellingShingle | Tuberculosis. Tuberculosis - Malaysia - Terengganu - Statistics. Kilicman, Adem Mohd Roslan, Ummu Atiqah Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis. |
| title | Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis. |
| title_full | Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis. |
| title_fullStr | Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis. |
| title_short | Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis. |
| title_sort | tuberculosis in the terengganu region: forecast and data analysis. |
| topic | Tuberculosis. Tuberculosis - Malaysia - Terengganu - Statistics. |
| url | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17488/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17488/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17488/7/Tuberculosis%20in%20the%20Terengganu%20region.pdf |