Flood prediction: analyzing land use scenarios and strategies in Sumber Brantas and Kali Konto watersheds in East Java, Indonesia
Previous studies have emphasized the significant influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on flood hazard severity. However, the analysis has been restricted to a single dataset and scenario. This study is carried out to analyze the land use options for flood prediction by examining three distinc...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Springer Science and Business Media B.V.
2025
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| Online Access: | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/120778/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/120778/1/120778.pdf |
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| author | Putra, Aditya Nugraha Alfaani, Salsabila Fitri Saputra, Danny Dwi Andhika, Yosi Wisnubroto, Erwin Ismu Admajaya, Fandy Tri Maritimo, Febrian Paimin, Saskia Karyna Kusumawati, Irma Ardi Prasetya, Novandi Rizky Sugiarto, Michelle Talisia Nita, Istika Sudarto, Sudarto Sujarwo, Sujarwo Rayes, Mochtar Lutfi Suprayogo, Didik Ismail, Mohd. Hasmadi van Noordwijk, Meine |
| author_facet | Putra, Aditya Nugraha Alfaani, Salsabila Fitri Saputra, Danny Dwi Andhika, Yosi Wisnubroto, Erwin Ismu Admajaya, Fandy Tri Maritimo, Febrian Paimin, Saskia Karyna Kusumawati, Irma Ardi Prasetya, Novandi Rizky Sugiarto, Michelle Talisia Nita, Istika Sudarto, Sudarto Sujarwo, Sujarwo Rayes, Mochtar Lutfi Suprayogo, Didik Ismail, Mohd. Hasmadi van Noordwijk, Meine |
| author_sort | Putra, Aditya Nugraha |
| building | UPM Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Previous studies have emphasized the significant influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on flood hazard severity. However, the analysis has been restricted to a single dataset and scenario. This study is carried out to analyze the land use options for flood prediction by examining three distinct scenarios namely business as usual (BAU), regional spatial planning (RSP), and land capability (LC). The BAU (2025) scenario was forecasted by using a multitemporal LULC baseline (2017, 2019, 2021 and 2022) and modelled with the ANN Cellular Automata-Markov Chain. The RSP and LC scenarios were developed based on the official regional spatial planning of Malang Regency and Batu City, while LC was developed through the land capability classification limiting factor method. These scenarios were applied to predict flood levels using the InVEST model, incorporating factors such as rainfall depth, hydrologic soil group, curve number, and a biophysical table for infiltration analysis, by using SCS Curve Number analysis in InVEST. The result shows a decline in forest cover (from 31 to 23%) and agroforestry (from 3 to 2%) to correspond with a 16% increase in flood hazard levels. This correlation was identified using pearson model and validated (Kappa accuracy) through ground-check surveys, achieving an overall classification accuracy of 75%. If there are no interventions, high and very high flood hazard levels could escalate to 12% and 4% in 2025. In contrast, the RSP and LC scenarios show promise in reducing flood hazards by 16% and 10%, respectively. Remarkably, the LC scenario has shown to be the most effective strategy for the land use approach, showcasing a potential to prevent flood hazards because it maintains the existence of forests according to their land capabilities. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T14:49:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | upm-120778 |
| institution | Universiti Putra Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T14:49:00Z |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publisher | Springer Science and Business Media B.V. |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | upm-1207782025-10-10T01:51:11Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/120778/ Flood prediction: analyzing land use scenarios and strategies in Sumber Brantas and Kali Konto watersheds in East Java, Indonesia Putra, Aditya Nugraha Alfaani, Salsabila Fitri Saputra, Danny Dwi Andhika, Yosi Wisnubroto, Erwin Ismu Admajaya, Fandy Tri Maritimo, Febrian Paimin, Saskia Karyna Kusumawati, Irma Ardi Prasetya, Novandi Rizky Sugiarto, Michelle Talisia Nita, Istika Sudarto, Sudarto Sujarwo, Sujarwo Rayes, Mochtar Lutfi Suprayogo, Didik Ismail, Mohd. Hasmadi van Noordwijk, Meine Previous studies have emphasized the significant influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on flood hazard severity. However, the analysis has been restricted to a single dataset and scenario. This study is carried out to analyze the land use options for flood prediction by examining three distinct scenarios namely business as usual (BAU), regional spatial planning (RSP), and land capability (LC). The BAU (2025) scenario was forecasted by using a multitemporal LULC baseline (2017, 2019, 2021 and 2022) and modelled with the ANN Cellular Automata-Markov Chain. The RSP and LC scenarios were developed based on the official regional spatial planning of Malang Regency and Batu City, while LC was developed through the land capability classification limiting factor method. These scenarios were applied to predict flood levels using the InVEST model, incorporating factors such as rainfall depth, hydrologic soil group, curve number, and a biophysical table for infiltration analysis, by using SCS Curve Number analysis in InVEST. The result shows a decline in forest cover (from 31 to 23%) and agroforestry (from 3 to 2%) to correspond with a 16% increase in flood hazard levels. This correlation was identified using pearson model and validated (Kappa accuracy) through ground-check surveys, achieving an overall classification accuracy of 75%. If there are no interventions, high and very high flood hazard levels could escalate to 12% and 4% in 2025. In contrast, the RSP and LC scenarios show promise in reducing flood hazards by 16% and 10%, respectively. Remarkably, the LC scenario has shown to be the most effective strategy for the land use approach, showcasing a potential to prevent flood hazards because it maintains the existence of forests according to their land capabilities. Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2025 Article PeerReviewed text en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/120778/1/120778.pdf Putra, Aditya Nugraha and Alfaani, Salsabila Fitri and Saputra, Danny Dwi and Andhika, Yosi and Wisnubroto, Erwin Ismu and Admajaya, Fandy Tri and Maritimo, Febrian and Paimin, Saskia Karyna and Kusumawati, Irma Ardi and Prasetya, Novandi Rizky and Sugiarto, Michelle Talisia and Nita, Istika and Sudarto, Sudarto and Sujarwo, Sujarwo and Rayes, Mochtar Lutfi and Suprayogo, Didik and Ismail, Mohd. Hasmadi and van Noordwijk, Meine (2025) Flood prediction: analyzing land use scenarios and strategies in Sumber Brantas and Kali Konto watersheds in East Java, Indonesia. Natural Hazards, 121 (12). pp. 15025-15053. ISSN 0921-030X; eISSN: 1573-0840 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-025-07363-4?error=cookies_not_supported&code=f47b0e2d-82ef-42db-9fb9-8d8231e8ba31 10.1007/s11069-025-07363-4 |
| spellingShingle | Putra, Aditya Nugraha Alfaani, Salsabila Fitri Saputra, Danny Dwi Andhika, Yosi Wisnubroto, Erwin Ismu Admajaya, Fandy Tri Maritimo, Febrian Paimin, Saskia Karyna Kusumawati, Irma Ardi Prasetya, Novandi Rizky Sugiarto, Michelle Talisia Nita, Istika Sudarto, Sudarto Sujarwo, Sujarwo Rayes, Mochtar Lutfi Suprayogo, Didik Ismail, Mohd. Hasmadi van Noordwijk, Meine Flood prediction: analyzing land use scenarios and strategies in Sumber Brantas and Kali Konto watersheds in East Java, Indonesia |
| title | Flood prediction: analyzing land use scenarios and strategies in Sumber Brantas and Kali Konto watersheds in East Java, Indonesia |
| title_full | Flood prediction: analyzing land use scenarios and strategies in Sumber Brantas and Kali Konto watersheds in East Java, Indonesia |
| title_fullStr | Flood prediction: analyzing land use scenarios and strategies in Sumber Brantas and Kali Konto watersheds in East Java, Indonesia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Flood prediction: analyzing land use scenarios and strategies in Sumber Brantas and Kali Konto watersheds in East Java, Indonesia |
| title_short | Flood prediction: analyzing land use scenarios and strategies in Sumber Brantas and Kali Konto watersheds in East Java, Indonesia |
| title_sort | flood prediction: analyzing land use scenarios and strategies in sumber brantas and kali konto watersheds in east java, indonesia |
| url | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/120778/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/120778/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/120778/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/120778/1/120778.pdf |