The dynamics of China’s mutton price fluctuations under extreme events
The notion of price instability has garnered renewed interest because of ongoing swings in agricultural prices in nations like China. We investigate the root cause of price volatility in the mutton market in China. To this purpose, we develop a theoretical model to explain endogenous price changes i...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Conference or Workshop Item |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Atlantis Press SARL
2024
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| Online Access: | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/117622/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/117622/1/117622.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848867298893365248 |
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| author | Zheng, Xiong Daud, Adrian Rosli, Anita Taasim, Shairil Izwan |
| author_facet | Zheng, Xiong Daud, Adrian Rosli, Anita Taasim, Shairil Izwan |
| author_sort | Zheng, Xiong |
| building | UPM Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | The notion of price instability has garnered renewed interest because of ongoing swings in agricultural prices in nations like China. We investigate the root cause of price volatility in the mutton market in China. To this purpose, we develop a theoretical model to explain endogenous price changes in the Chinese mutton supply chain by using information from our fieldwork and estimates from unobserved component models. We use vector auto regressions and weekly data on sheep and mutton prices in China to derive hypotheses from our theoretical model that can be tested under conventional assumptions. Our empirical results are consistent with those of our theoretical model, and the evidence of endogenous dynamics in observed prices is resistant to different specifications and estimating techniques. We demonstrate with the aid of numerical simulations how empirically based parameterizations of our theoretical model can accurately represent the key elements of mutton price fluctuations in China. Our descriptive, empirical, and numerical studies have accumulated evidence that strongly supports the endogenous nature of price instability in China’s mutton supply chain. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T14:34:17Z |
| format | Conference or Workshop Item |
| id | upm-117622 |
| institution | Universiti Putra Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T14:34:17Z |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | Atlantis Press SARL |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | upm-1176222025-06-30T07:37:39Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/117622/ The dynamics of China’s mutton price fluctuations under extreme events Zheng, Xiong Daud, Adrian Rosli, Anita Taasim, Shairil Izwan The notion of price instability has garnered renewed interest because of ongoing swings in agricultural prices in nations like China. We investigate the root cause of price volatility in the mutton market in China. To this purpose, we develop a theoretical model to explain endogenous price changes in the Chinese mutton supply chain by using information from our fieldwork and estimates from unobserved component models. We use vector auto regressions and weekly data on sheep and mutton prices in China to derive hypotheses from our theoretical model that can be tested under conventional assumptions. Our empirical results are consistent with those of our theoretical model, and the evidence of endogenous dynamics in observed prices is resistant to different specifications and estimating techniques. We demonstrate with the aid of numerical simulations how empirically based parameterizations of our theoretical model can accurately represent the key elements of mutton price fluctuations in China. Our descriptive, empirical, and numerical studies have accumulated evidence that strongly supports the endogenous nature of price instability in China’s mutton supply chain. Atlantis Press SARL 2024 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed text en cc_by_nc_4 http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/117622/1/117622.pdf Zheng, Xiong and Daud, Adrian and Rosli, Anita and Taasim, Shairil Izwan (2024) The dynamics of China’s mutton price fluctuations under extreme events. In: International Conference on Science Technology and Social Sciences – Social Science Track (ICONSTAS-SS 2023), 12-13 Dec. 2023, Malaysia. (pp. 108-120). https://www.atlantis-press.com/proceedings/iconstas-ss-23/126003875 10.2991/978-2-38476-293-4_11 |
| spellingShingle | Zheng, Xiong Daud, Adrian Rosli, Anita Taasim, Shairil Izwan The dynamics of China’s mutton price fluctuations under extreme events |
| title | The dynamics of China’s mutton price fluctuations under extreme events |
| title_full | The dynamics of China’s mutton price fluctuations under extreme events |
| title_fullStr | The dynamics of China’s mutton price fluctuations under extreme events |
| title_full_unstemmed | The dynamics of China’s mutton price fluctuations under extreme events |
| title_short | The dynamics of China’s mutton price fluctuations under extreme events |
| title_sort | dynamics of china’s mutton price fluctuations under extreme events |
| url | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/117622/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/117622/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/117622/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/117622/1/117622.pdf |