Unveiling the impacts of climate change and human activities on land-use evolution in ecologically fragile urbanizing areas: a case study of China's Central Plains Urban Agglomeration

Environmental changes driven by climate change and human activities have significantly influenced the spatiotemporal evolution of land–use in urbanizing, ecologically fragile areas. However, these dynamics remain inadequately explored in terms of their evolution over space and time. In this study, w...

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Main Authors: Jiang, Zhimeng, Li, Yan, Wu, Hao, Mohamed Shariff, Abdul Rashid, Zhou, Han, Fan, Kaixuan
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier B.V. 2024
Online Access:http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/114760/
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/114760/1/114760.pdf
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author Jiang, Zhimeng
Li, Yan
Wu, Hao
Mohamed Shariff, Abdul Rashid
Zhou, Han
Fan, Kaixuan
author_facet Jiang, Zhimeng
Li, Yan
Wu, Hao
Mohamed Shariff, Abdul Rashid
Zhou, Han
Fan, Kaixuan
author_sort Jiang, Zhimeng
building UPM Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description Environmental changes driven by climate change and human activities have significantly influenced the spatiotemporal evolution of land–use in urbanizing, ecologically fragile areas. However, these dynamics remain inadequately explored in terms of their evolution over space and time. In this study, we used a combination of CA-Markov and Coupling coordinated models to analyze the impacts of climate change and human activities on land–use evolution in China's Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA) from 2000 to 2060. Our results reveal that environmental changes significantly influence the spatiotemporal evolution of land use, accelerating rural-to-urban conversions in ecologically vulnerable regions, as validated by a CA-Markov model Kappa coefficient of 0.8378. These impacts, however, are predicted to diminish over time, with the strongest effects observed in areas with high ecological fragility. Specifically, increasing variability in climate conditions and intensifying human activities have resulted in cropland reduction at a rate of −260 km2/year and a simultaneous increase in built-up areas at a rate of 200 km2/year. This study underscores the critical influence of environmental changes on land–use dynamics and provides insights for policymakers and planners on promoting ecological resilience and sustainable land–use management to tackle the evolving challenges of climate change and human-induced disturbances.
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spelling upm-1147602025-01-31T00:59:51Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/114760/ Unveiling the impacts of climate change and human activities on land-use evolution in ecologically fragile urbanizing areas: a case study of China's Central Plains Urban Agglomeration Jiang, Zhimeng Li, Yan Wu, Hao Mohamed Shariff, Abdul Rashid Zhou, Han Fan, Kaixuan Environmental changes driven by climate change and human activities have significantly influenced the spatiotemporal evolution of land–use in urbanizing, ecologically fragile areas. However, these dynamics remain inadequately explored in terms of their evolution over space and time. In this study, we used a combination of CA-Markov and Coupling coordinated models to analyze the impacts of climate change and human activities on land–use evolution in China's Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA) from 2000 to 2060. Our results reveal that environmental changes significantly influence the spatiotemporal evolution of land use, accelerating rural-to-urban conversions in ecologically vulnerable regions, as validated by a CA-Markov model Kappa coefficient of 0.8378. These impacts, however, are predicted to diminish over time, with the strongest effects observed in areas with high ecological fragility. Specifically, increasing variability in climate conditions and intensifying human activities have resulted in cropland reduction at a rate of −260 km2/year and a simultaneous increase in built-up areas at a rate of 200 km2/year. This study underscores the critical influence of environmental changes on land–use dynamics and provides insights for policymakers and planners on promoting ecological resilience and sustainable land–use management to tackle the evolving challenges of climate change and human-induced disturbances. Elsevier B.V. 2024 Article PeerReviewed text en cc_by_nc_nd_4 http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/114760/1/114760.pdf Jiang, Zhimeng and Li, Yan and Wu, Hao and Mohamed Shariff, Abdul Rashid and Zhou, Han and Fan, Kaixuan (2024) Unveiling the impacts of climate change and human activities on land-use evolution in ecologically fragile urbanizing areas: a case study of China's Central Plains Urban Agglomeration. Ecological Indicators, 169. art. no. 112936. pp. 1-14. ISSN 1470-160X; eISSN: 1470-160X https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1470160X24013931 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112936
spellingShingle Jiang, Zhimeng
Li, Yan
Wu, Hao
Mohamed Shariff, Abdul Rashid
Zhou, Han
Fan, Kaixuan
Unveiling the impacts of climate change and human activities on land-use evolution in ecologically fragile urbanizing areas: a case study of China's Central Plains Urban Agglomeration
title Unveiling the impacts of climate change and human activities on land-use evolution in ecologically fragile urbanizing areas: a case study of China's Central Plains Urban Agglomeration
title_full Unveiling the impacts of climate change and human activities on land-use evolution in ecologically fragile urbanizing areas: a case study of China's Central Plains Urban Agglomeration
title_fullStr Unveiling the impacts of climate change and human activities on land-use evolution in ecologically fragile urbanizing areas: a case study of China's Central Plains Urban Agglomeration
title_full_unstemmed Unveiling the impacts of climate change and human activities on land-use evolution in ecologically fragile urbanizing areas: a case study of China's Central Plains Urban Agglomeration
title_short Unveiling the impacts of climate change and human activities on land-use evolution in ecologically fragile urbanizing areas: a case study of China's Central Plains Urban Agglomeration
title_sort unveiling the impacts of climate change and human activities on land-use evolution in ecologically fragile urbanizing areas: a case study of china's central plains urban agglomeration
url http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/114760/
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/114760/
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/114760/
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/114760/1/114760.pdf