Modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in Katsina State using statistical downscaling model (SDM)
Climate change significantly impacts local, regional, and global vegetation changes. These changes have continued to threaten ecosystems, especially in dryland areas where moisture is scarce, and the livelihoods of rural communities are at risk because of such changes, as well as their capacity to p...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023
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| Online Access: | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/110305/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/110305/1/1-s2.0-S1470160X23011214-main-compressed.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848865489512562688 |
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| author | Hadi Ahmad, Mohammad Abubakar, Ahmed Yusoff Ishak, Mohd Shehu Danhassan, Samir Jiahua, Zhang Alatalo, Juha M. |
| author_facet | Hadi Ahmad, Mohammad Abubakar, Ahmed Yusoff Ishak, Mohd Shehu Danhassan, Samir Jiahua, Zhang Alatalo, Juha M. |
| author_sort | Hadi Ahmad, Mohammad |
| building | UPM Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Climate change significantly impacts local, regional, and global vegetation changes. These changes have continued to threaten ecosystems, especially in dryland areas where moisture is scarce, and the livelihoods of rural communities are at risk because of such changes, as well as their capacity to provide outputs and sustain the livelihoods of rural communities. This study aims to derive a simulation model of vegetation conditions concerning daily temperature and extreme precipitation indices in Katsina State, Nigeria. This study uses remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analysis, time series analysis of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and twenty-four indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection to evaluate the influence of Temp and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics/NDVI. The results indicate that the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) is performing satisfactorily in predicting maximum and minimum temperatures, along with precipitation, for the time horizon of the simulation. Mean precipitation of 1.98 mm (RCP2.6), 2.03 mm (RCP4.5), and 2.07 mm (RCP8.5) was revealed in the study area. Tmax and Tmin were projected under low emissions at 20.1 0C and 14.25 0C (RCP2.6), 20.13 °C and 14.26 0C (RCP4.5), and 20.15 0C and 14.27 0C (RCP8.5) respectively. All the scenarios present increasing minimum and maximum temperatures and decreasing precipitation, except for RCP8.5, which predicted a more adverse trend. However, in Katsina State, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), precipitation, Tmax, and Tmin, extreme temperature and precipitation indices, and drought indices successfully demonstrated spatial and temporal variability. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T14:05:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | upm-110305 |
| institution | Universiti Putra Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T14:05:31Z |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | upm-1103052024-09-23T07:10:20Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/110305/ Modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in Katsina State using statistical downscaling model (SDM) Hadi Ahmad, Mohammad Abubakar, Ahmed Yusoff Ishak, Mohd Shehu Danhassan, Samir Jiahua, Zhang Alatalo, Juha M. Climate change significantly impacts local, regional, and global vegetation changes. These changes have continued to threaten ecosystems, especially in dryland areas where moisture is scarce, and the livelihoods of rural communities are at risk because of such changes, as well as their capacity to provide outputs and sustain the livelihoods of rural communities. This study aims to derive a simulation model of vegetation conditions concerning daily temperature and extreme precipitation indices in Katsina State, Nigeria. This study uses remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analysis, time series analysis of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and twenty-four indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection to evaluate the influence of Temp and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics/NDVI. The results indicate that the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) is performing satisfactorily in predicting maximum and minimum temperatures, along with precipitation, for the time horizon of the simulation. Mean precipitation of 1.98 mm (RCP2.6), 2.03 mm (RCP4.5), and 2.07 mm (RCP8.5) was revealed in the study area. Tmax and Tmin were projected under low emissions at 20.1 0C and 14.25 0C (RCP2.6), 20.13 °C and 14.26 0C (RCP4.5), and 20.15 0C and 14.27 0C (RCP8.5) respectively. All the scenarios present increasing minimum and maximum temperatures and decreasing precipitation, except for RCP8.5, which predicted a more adverse trend. However, in Katsina State, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), precipitation, Tmax, and Tmin, extreme temperature and precipitation indices, and drought indices successfully demonstrated spatial and temporal variability. Elsevier 2023-11 Article PeerReviewed text en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/110305/1/1-s2.0-S1470160X23011214-main-compressed.pdf Hadi Ahmad, Mohammad and Abubakar, Ahmed and Yusoff Ishak, Mohd and Shehu Danhassan, Samir and Jiahua, Zhang and Alatalo, Juha M. (2023) Modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in Katsina State using statistical downscaling model (SDM). Ecological Indicators, 155. pp. 1-10. ISSN 1470-160X; ESSN: 1872-7034 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1470160X23011214 10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110979 |
| spellingShingle | Hadi Ahmad, Mohammad Abubakar, Ahmed Yusoff Ishak, Mohd Shehu Danhassan, Samir Jiahua, Zhang Alatalo, Juha M. Modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in Katsina State using statistical downscaling model (SDM) |
| title | Modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in Katsina State using statistical downscaling model (SDM) |
| title_full | Modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in Katsina State using statistical downscaling model (SDM) |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in Katsina State using statistical downscaling model (SDM) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in Katsina State using statistical downscaling model (SDM) |
| title_short | Modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in Katsina State using statistical downscaling model (SDM) |
| title_sort | modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in katsina state using statistical downscaling model (sdm) |
| url | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/110305/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/110305/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/110305/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/110305/1/1-s2.0-S1470160X23011214-main-compressed.pdf |