A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia
SARS-CoV-2, known as COVID-19, has affected the entire world, resulting in an unexpected death rate as compared to the death probability before the pandemic. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, death probability has been assessed in a normal context that is different from those anticipated during the pa...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
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Hindawi
2022
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| Online Access: | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/100088/ |
| _version_ | 1848863220632125440 |
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| author | Edrus, Robiaatul Adawiah Siri, Zailan Haron, Mohd Azmi Mohd Safari, Muhammad Aslam A.Kaabar, Mohammed K. |
| author_facet | Edrus, Robiaatul Adawiah Siri, Zailan Haron, Mohd Azmi Mohd Safari, Muhammad Aslam A.Kaabar, Mohammed K. |
| author_sort | Edrus, Robiaatul Adawiah |
| building | UPM Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | SARS-CoV-2, known as COVID-19, has affected the entire world, resulting in an unexpected death rate as compared to the death probability before the pandemic. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, death probability has been assessed in a normal context that is different from those anticipated during the pandemic, particularly for the older population cluster. However, there is no such evidence of excess mortality in Malaysia to date. Therefore, this study determines the excess mortality rate for specific age groups during the pandemic outbreak in Malaysia. Before determining the excess mortality rate, this study aims to establish the efficiency of various parametrized mortality models in reference to the data set before the pandemic. This study employs the hold-out, repeated hold-out, and leave-one-out cross-validation procedures to identify the optimal mortality law for fitting the mortality data. Based on the goodness-of-fit measures (mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, sum square error, and mean square error), the Heligman-Pollard model for men and Rogers Planck model for women are considered as the optimal models. In assessing the excess mortality, both models favour the hold-out technique. When the COVID-19 mortality data are incorporated to forecast the mortality rate for people aged 60 and above, there is an excess mortality rate. However, the men’s mortality rate appears to be delayed and more prolonged than the women’s mortality rate. Consequently, the government is recommended to amend the existing policy to reflect the post COVID-19 mortality forecast. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T13:29:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | upm-100088 |
| institution | Universiti Putra Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T13:29:28Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | Hindawi |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | upm-1000882024-08-05T01:35:19Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/100088/ A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia Edrus, Robiaatul Adawiah Siri, Zailan Haron, Mohd Azmi Mohd Safari, Muhammad Aslam A.Kaabar, Mohammed K. SARS-CoV-2, known as COVID-19, has affected the entire world, resulting in an unexpected death rate as compared to the death probability before the pandemic. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, death probability has been assessed in a normal context that is different from those anticipated during the pandemic, particularly for the older population cluster. However, there is no such evidence of excess mortality in Malaysia to date. Therefore, this study determines the excess mortality rate for specific age groups during the pandemic outbreak in Malaysia. Before determining the excess mortality rate, this study aims to establish the efficiency of various parametrized mortality models in reference to the data set before the pandemic. This study employs the hold-out, repeated hold-out, and leave-one-out cross-validation procedures to identify the optimal mortality law for fitting the mortality data. Based on the goodness-of-fit measures (mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, sum square error, and mean square error), the Heligman-Pollard model for men and Rogers Planck model for women are considered as the optimal models. In assessing the excess mortality, both models favour the hold-out technique. When the COVID-19 mortality data are incorporated to forecast the mortality rate for people aged 60 and above, there is an excess mortality rate. However, the men’s mortality rate appears to be delayed and more prolonged than the women’s mortality rate. Consequently, the government is recommended to amend the existing policy to reflect the post COVID-19 mortality forecast. Hindawi 2022 Article PeerReviewed Edrus, Robiaatul Adawiah and Siri, Zailan and Haron, Mohd Azmi and Mohd Safari, Muhammad Aslam and A.Kaabar, Mohammed K. (2022) A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia. Journal of Mathematics, 2022. art. no. 7715078. pp. 1-12. ISSN 2314-4629; ESSN: 2314-4785 https://www.hindawi.com/journals/jmath/2022/7715078/ 10.1155/2022/7715078 |
| spellingShingle | Edrus, Robiaatul Adawiah Siri, Zailan Haron, Mohd Azmi Mohd Safari, Muhammad Aslam A.Kaabar, Mohammed K. A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia |
| title | A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia |
| title_full | A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia |
| title_fullStr | A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia |
| title_full_unstemmed | A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia |
| title_short | A comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the COVID-19 excess mortality rate in Malaysia |
| title_sort | comparative analysis of the forecasted mortality rate under normal conditions and the covid-19 excess mortality rate in malaysia |
| url | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/100088/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/100088/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/100088/ |