Current Account Deficit Sustainability: A Panel Approach

Abstract In this paper we attempt to examine the issue of sustainability of current account imbalances in eight East Asia countries using the latest developments in nonstationary panel data analysis. The methods of nonstationary time series panels provide a much more promising explanation than would...

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Main Authors: Evan,, Lau, Ahmad Zubaidi, Baharumshah, Stilianos, Fountas
Format: Article
Published: Center for International Economics, Sejong Institution 2005
Subjects:
Online Access:http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/7275/
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author Evan,, Lau
Ahmad Zubaidi, Baharumshah
Stilianos, Fountas
author_facet Evan,, Lau
Ahmad Zubaidi, Baharumshah
Stilianos, Fountas
author_sort Evan,, Lau
building UNIMAS Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description Abstract In this paper we attempt to examine the issue of sustainability of current account imbalances in eight East Asia countries using the latest developments in nonstationary panel data analysis. The methods of nonstationary time series panels provide a much more promising explanation than would an analysis based on pure time series or cross section data. The empirical results clearly indicate that the current account imbalances were not on the long-run steady state in the pre-crisis era (1970-1997). This leads to the conclusion that the current accounts of Asia-8 during this period were unstable and did not move towards external account equilibrium. However, strong comovements between exports and imports are found in the extended sample period that includes the post-crisis period (1970-2000). This result implies that large currency depreciations and the economic recovery have brought the Asia-8 economies back on a sustainable path. Thus, current account imbalances may be used as an indicator (or warning signal) in predicting future crises.
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spelling unimas-72752015-05-06T01:42:14Z http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/7275/ Current Account Deficit Sustainability: A Panel Approach Evan,, Lau Ahmad Zubaidi, Baharumshah Stilianos, Fountas HB Economic Theory HG Finance Abstract In this paper we attempt to examine the issue of sustainability of current account imbalances in eight East Asia countries using the latest developments in nonstationary panel data analysis. The methods of nonstationary time series panels provide a much more promising explanation than would an analysis based on pure time series or cross section data. The empirical results clearly indicate that the current account imbalances were not on the long-run steady state in the pre-crisis era (1970-1997). This leads to the conclusion that the current accounts of Asia-8 during this period were unstable and did not move towards external account equilibrium. However, strong comovements between exports and imports are found in the extended sample period that includes the post-crisis period (1970-2000). This result implies that large currency depreciations and the economic recovery have brought the Asia-8 economies back on a sustainable path. Thus, current account imbalances may be used as an indicator (or warning signal) in predicting future crises. Center for International Economics, Sejong Institution 2005 Article PeerReviewed Evan,, Lau and Ahmad Zubaidi, Baharumshah and Stilianos, Fountas (2005) Current Account Deficit Sustainability: A Panel Approach. Journal of Economic Integration, 20 (3). pp. 514-529. ISSN 1225-651X https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=1HyaltEAAAAJ&cstart=20&citation_for_view=1HyaltEAAAAJ:RYcK_YlVTxYC
spellingShingle HB Economic Theory
HG Finance
Evan,, Lau
Ahmad Zubaidi, Baharumshah
Stilianos, Fountas
Current Account Deficit Sustainability: A Panel Approach
title Current Account Deficit Sustainability: A Panel Approach
title_full Current Account Deficit Sustainability: A Panel Approach
title_fullStr Current Account Deficit Sustainability: A Panel Approach
title_full_unstemmed Current Account Deficit Sustainability: A Panel Approach
title_short Current Account Deficit Sustainability: A Panel Approach
title_sort current account deficit sustainability: a panel approach
topic HB Economic Theory
HG Finance
url http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/7275/
http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/7275/