Forecasting Malaysian Business Cycle Movement:Empirical Evidence from Composite Leading Indicator
Early detection of a turning point in a business cycle is crucial, as information about the changing phases in business cycles enables policy makers, the business community, and investors to cope better with unexpected events brought about by economic and business situations. The Malaysian economy i...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Munich University Library
2012
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/3210/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/3210/1/Forecasting%20malaysian%20business%20cycle%20movement%20%28abstract%29.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848835164332883968 |
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| author | Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling Shazali, Abu Mansor Puah, Chin Hong Liew, Venus Khim-Sen |
| author_facet | Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling Shazali, Abu Mansor Puah, Chin Hong Liew, Venus Khim-Sen |
| author_sort | Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling |
| building | UNIMAS Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Early detection of a turning point in a business cycle is crucial, as information about the changing phases in business cycles enables policy makers, the business community, and investors to cope better with unexpected events brought about by economic and business situations. The Malaysian economy is fortunate to own a publicly accessible composite of leading indicator (CLI) that is presumed capable of tracing the business cycle movement and thus contributes to the creation of an early signaling tool for short-term economic forecasting.Certainly, the usefulness of this CLI in monitoring the contemporary economic and businesscondition in Malaysia will be empirically appealing to the nation. Even though the presentstudy can display the ability of the Malaysian CLI to trace the business cycle and offers advanced detection of business cycle turning points, the evidence of diminishing lead times foreseen by the CLI significantly weaken the fundamental function of a leading index as an early tool to signal economic vulnerability. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T06:03:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | unimas-3210 |
| institution | Universiti Malaysia Sarawak |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T06:03:31Z |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| publisher | Munich University Library |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | unimas-32102017-10-04T01:20:11Z http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/3210/ Forecasting Malaysian Business Cycle Movement:Empirical Evidence from Composite Leading Indicator Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling Shazali, Abu Mansor Puah, Chin Hong Liew, Venus Khim-Sen H Social Sciences (General) HB Economic Theory Early detection of a turning point in a business cycle is crucial, as information about the changing phases in business cycles enables policy makers, the business community, and investors to cope better with unexpected events brought about by economic and business situations. The Malaysian economy is fortunate to own a publicly accessible composite of leading indicator (CLI) that is presumed capable of tracing the business cycle movement and thus contributes to the creation of an early signaling tool for short-term economic forecasting.Certainly, the usefulness of this CLI in monitoring the contemporary economic and businesscondition in Malaysia will be empirically appealing to the nation. Even though the presentstudy can display the ability of the Malaysian CLI to trace the business cycle and offers advanced detection of business cycle turning points, the evidence of diminishing lead times foreseen by the CLI significantly weaken the fundamental function of a leading index as an early tool to signal economic vulnerability. Munich University Library 2012 Article PeerReviewed text en http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/3210/1/Forecasting%20malaysian%20business%20cycle%20movement%20%28abstract%29.pdf Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling and Shazali, Abu Mansor and Puah, Chin Hong and Liew, Venus Khim-Sen (2012) Forecasting Malaysian Business Cycle Movement:Empirical Evidence from Composite Leading Indicator. Munich Personal RePEc Archive. ISSN 2285-6803 https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36649/ |
| spellingShingle | H Social Sciences (General) HB Economic Theory Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling Shazali, Abu Mansor Puah, Chin Hong Liew, Venus Khim-Sen Forecasting Malaysian Business Cycle Movement:Empirical Evidence from Composite Leading Indicator |
| title | Forecasting Malaysian Business Cycle Movement:Empirical Evidence from Composite Leading Indicator |
| title_full | Forecasting Malaysian Business Cycle Movement:Empirical Evidence from Composite Leading Indicator |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting Malaysian Business Cycle Movement:Empirical Evidence from Composite Leading Indicator |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting Malaysian Business Cycle Movement:Empirical Evidence from Composite Leading Indicator |
| title_short | Forecasting Malaysian Business Cycle Movement:Empirical Evidence from Composite Leading Indicator |
| title_sort | forecasting malaysian business cycle movement:empirical evidence from composite leading indicator |
| topic | H Social Sciences (General) HB Economic Theory |
| url | http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/3210/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/3210/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/3210/1/Forecasting%20malaysian%20business%20cycle%20movement%20%28abstract%29.pdf |