Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price
Pepper is an important agriculture commodity especially for the state of Sarawak. It is important to forecast its price, as this could help the policy makers in coming up with production and marketing plan to improve the Sarawak’s economy as well as the farmers’ welfare. In this paper, we take up ti...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Munich University Library
2006
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18644/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18644/1/Liew%20Khim%20Sen.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848838556627238912 |
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| author | Liew, Venus Khim-Sen Shitan, Mahnendran Huzaimi, Hussain |
| author_facet | Liew, Venus Khim-Sen Shitan, Mahnendran Huzaimi, Hussain |
| author_sort | Liew, Venus Khim-Sen |
| building | UNIMAS Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Pepper is an important agriculture commodity especially for the state of Sarawak. It is important to forecast its price, as this could help the policy makers in coming up with production and marketing plan to improve the Sarawak’s economy as well as the farmers’ welfare. In this paper, we take up time series modelling and forecasting of the Sarawak black pepper price. Our empirical results show that Autoregressive Moving Average
(ARMA) time series models fit the price series well and they have correctly predicted the future trend of the price series within the sample period of study. Amongst a group of 25
fitted models, ARMA (1, 0) model is selected based on post-sample forecast criteria. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T06:57:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | unimas-18644 |
| institution | Universiti Malaysia Sarawak |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T06:57:26Z |
| publishDate | 2006 |
| publisher | Munich University Library |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | unimas-186442022-01-19T07:06:42Z http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18644/ Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price Liew, Venus Khim-Sen Shitan, Mahnendran Huzaimi, Hussain HB Economic Theory Pepper is an important agriculture commodity especially for the state of Sarawak. It is important to forecast its price, as this could help the policy makers in coming up with production and marketing plan to improve the Sarawak’s economy as well as the farmers’ welfare. In this paper, we take up time series modelling and forecasting of the Sarawak black pepper price. Our empirical results show that Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) time series models fit the price series well and they have correctly predicted the future trend of the price series within the sample period of study. Amongst a group of 25 fitted models, ARMA (1, 0) model is selected based on post-sample forecast criteria. Munich University Library 2006-11 Article PeerReviewed text en http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18644/1/Liew%20Khim%20Sen.pdf Liew, Venus Khim-Sen and Shitan, Mahnendran and Huzaimi, Hussain (2006) Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price. Munich Personal RePEc Archive. pp. 1-17. ISSN 2285-6803 http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/791/ |
| spellingShingle | HB Economic Theory Liew, Venus Khim-Sen Shitan, Mahnendran Huzaimi, Hussain Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price |
| title | Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price |
| title_full | Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price |
| title_fullStr | Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price |
| title_full_unstemmed | Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price |
| title_short | Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price |
| title_sort | time series modelling and forecasting of sarawak black pepper price |
| topic | HB Economic Theory |
| url | http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18644/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18644/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18644/1/Liew%20Khim%20Sen.pdf |