Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price

Pepper is an important agriculture commodity especially for the state of Sarawak. It is important to forecast its price, as this could help the policy makers in coming up with production and marketing plan to improve the Sarawak’s economy as well as the farmers’ welfare. In this paper, we take up ti...

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Main Authors: Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, Shitan, Mahnendran, Huzaimi, Hussain
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Munich University Library 2006
Subjects:
Online Access:http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18644/
http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18644/1/Liew%20Khim%20Sen.pdf
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author Liew, Venus Khim-Sen
Shitan, Mahnendran
Huzaimi, Hussain
author_facet Liew, Venus Khim-Sen
Shitan, Mahnendran
Huzaimi, Hussain
author_sort Liew, Venus Khim-Sen
building UNIMAS Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description Pepper is an important agriculture commodity especially for the state of Sarawak. It is important to forecast its price, as this could help the policy makers in coming up with production and marketing plan to improve the Sarawak’s economy as well as the farmers’ welfare. In this paper, we take up time series modelling and forecasting of the Sarawak black pepper price. Our empirical results show that Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) time series models fit the price series well and they have correctly predicted the future trend of the price series within the sample period of study. Amongst a group of 25 fitted models, ARMA (1, 0) model is selected based on post-sample forecast criteria.
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spelling unimas-186442022-01-19T07:06:42Z http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18644/ Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price Liew, Venus Khim-Sen Shitan, Mahnendran Huzaimi, Hussain HB Economic Theory Pepper is an important agriculture commodity especially for the state of Sarawak. It is important to forecast its price, as this could help the policy makers in coming up with production and marketing plan to improve the Sarawak’s economy as well as the farmers’ welfare. In this paper, we take up time series modelling and forecasting of the Sarawak black pepper price. Our empirical results show that Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) time series models fit the price series well and they have correctly predicted the future trend of the price series within the sample period of study. Amongst a group of 25 fitted models, ARMA (1, 0) model is selected based on post-sample forecast criteria. Munich University Library 2006-11 Article PeerReviewed text en http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18644/1/Liew%20Khim%20Sen.pdf Liew, Venus Khim-Sen and Shitan, Mahnendran and Huzaimi, Hussain (2006) Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price. Munich Personal RePEc Archive. pp. 1-17. ISSN 2285-6803 http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/791/
spellingShingle HB Economic Theory
Liew, Venus Khim-Sen
Shitan, Mahnendran
Huzaimi, Hussain
Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price
title Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price
title_full Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price
title_fullStr Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price
title_full_unstemmed Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price
title_short Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price
title_sort time series modelling and forecasting of sarawak black pepper price
topic HB Economic Theory
url http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18644/
http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18644/
http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18644/1/Liew%20Khim%20Sen.pdf