Are business forecasts of the construction sector rational? Survey-based evidence from Malaysia
This paper extends the direct measure to business expectations in assessing the doctrine of forecast rationality in the contemporary environment of Malaysia’s construction sector. The survey’s expectational series on business operational forecasts across the period 1990 to 2010 is inconsistent w...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Taylor & Francis Group
2017
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18011/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18011/1/Are%20business%20forecasts%20of%20the%20construction%20sector%20rational%20%28abstract%29.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848838415832842240 |
|---|---|
| author | Puah, Chin Hong Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling Muzafar Shah, Habibullah |
| author_facet | Puah, Chin Hong Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling Muzafar Shah, Habibullah |
| author_sort | Puah, Chin Hong |
| building | UNIMAS Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | This paper extends the direct measure to business expectations in
assessing the doctrine of forecast rationality in the contemporary
environment of Malaysia’s construction sector. The survey’s
expectational series on business operational forecasts across the
period 1990 to 2010 is inconsistent with Muth’s concept of rational
expectations. Although strict rationality failed to be evidenced, weakly
rational conduct can be observed in capital expenditure forecasts.
Nevertheless, both operational variables in question are optimistically
biased upward and neither of them can accurately reflect the true
market perception. This evidence casts doubt on the usefulness of
the investigated survey series in providing a realistic panorama of
the construction sector in the near future. Notwithstanding, the
irrational upshot may drop a hint to the reader on the root of alarming
property overhang and price hikes in construction-related markets
since expectations play a foremost role in providing equilibrium in
the supply and demand in this growth-initiating market. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T06:55:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | unimas-18011 |
| institution | Universiti Malaysia Sarawak |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T06:55:12Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | unimas-180112017-10-06T03:38:32Z http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18011/ Are business forecasts of the construction sector rational? Survey-based evidence from Malaysia Puah, Chin Hong Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling Muzafar Shah, Habibullah H Social Sciences (General) This paper extends the direct measure to business expectations in assessing the doctrine of forecast rationality in the contemporary environment of Malaysia’s construction sector. The survey’s expectational series on business operational forecasts across the period 1990 to 2010 is inconsistent with Muth’s concept of rational expectations. Although strict rationality failed to be evidenced, weakly rational conduct can be observed in capital expenditure forecasts. Nevertheless, both operational variables in question are optimistically biased upward and neither of them can accurately reflect the true market perception. This evidence casts doubt on the usefulness of the investigated survey series in providing a realistic panorama of the construction sector in the near future. Notwithstanding, the irrational upshot may drop a hint to the reader on the root of alarming property overhang and price hikes in construction-related markets since expectations play a foremost role in providing equilibrium in the supply and demand in this growth-initiating market. Taylor & Francis Group 2017 Article PeerReviewed text en http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18011/1/Are%20business%20forecasts%20of%20the%20construction%20sector%20rational%20%28abstract%29.pdf Puah, Chin Hong and Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling and Muzafar Shah, Habibullah (2017) Are business forecasts of the construction sector rational? Survey-based evidence from Malaysia. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 30 (1). pp. 858-872. ISSN 1331-677X http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2017.1305794 DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2017.1305794 |
| spellingShingle | H Social Sciences (General) Puah, Chin Hong Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling Muzafar Shah, Habibullah Are business forecasts of the construction sector rational? Survey-based evidence from Malaysia |
| title | Are business forecasts of the construction sector rational? Survey-based evidence from Malaysia |
| title_full | Are business forecasts of the construction sector rational? Survey-based evidence from Malaysia |
| title_fullStr | Are business forecasts of the construction sector rational? Survey-based evidence from Malaysia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Are business forecasts of the construction sector rational? Survey-based evidence from Malaysia |
| title_short | Are business forecasts of the construction sector rational? Survey-based evidence from Malaysia |
| title_sort | are business forecasts of the construction sector rational? survey-based evidence from malaysia |
| topic | H Social Sciences (General) |
| url | http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18011/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18011/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18011/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/18011/1/Are%20business%20forecasts%20of%20the%20construction%20sector%20rational%20%28abstract%29.pdf |