Criminometric Analysis Of Deterrence Hypothesis

This paper empirically estimates disaggregated crime categories for Sabah from 1968 to 2006. The criminometric analysis incorporated in a within sample analysis of cointegration and error correction framework and the beyond sample analysis using the decompositions of variance. Our findings suggest t...

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Main Authors: Lau, Evan, Siti Nur Zahara, Hamzah
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Universitatea SPIRU HARET 2013
Subjects:
Online Access:http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/17976/
http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/17976/1/article-detail_id%3D8042
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author Lau, Evan
Siti Nur Zahara, Hamzah
author_facet Lau, Evan
Siti Nur Zahara, Hamzah
author_sort Lau, Evan
building UNIMAS Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description This paper empirically estimates disaggregated crime categories for Sabah from 1968 to 2006. The criminometric analysis incorporated in a within sample analysis of cointegration and error correction framework and the beyond sample analysis using the decompositions of variance. Our findings suggest that any support for the deterrence hypothesis is sensitive to the inclusion of prison or courts related variables. In the long run we find that only robbery is exogenous in all crime model tested however, the beyond sample estimation proves that in longer time period of approximately 50 years the post-sample dynamic VDCs imply that a substantial portion of the variance of the forecast error of these crime are explained by their explanatory variables. The presence of cointegration between these variables tends to suggest that these economic and deterrent variables, along with alternative types of crime, are bound together by common trends. In other words, it can be said that although these cointegrated variables will have short-run or temporal deviations from their long-run common trends, eventually forces will be set in motion that will bring all the variables into states of equilibrium.
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spelling unimas-179762017-10-10T03:02:21Z http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/17976/ Criminometric Analysis Of Deterrence Hypothesis Lau, Evan Siti Nur Zahara, Hamzah H Social Sciences (General) This paper empirically estimates disaggregated crime categories for Sabah from 1968 to 2006. The criminometric analysis incorporated in a within sample analysis of cointegration and error correction framework and the beyond sample analysis using the decompositions of variance. Our findings suggest that any support for the deterrence hypothesis is sensitive to the inclusion of prison or courts related variables. In the long run we find that only robbery is exogenous in all crime model tested however, the beyond sample estimation proves that in longer time period of approximately 50 years the post-sample dynamic VDCs imply that a substantial portion of the variance of the forecast error of these crime are explained by their explanatory variables. The presence of cointegration between these variables tends to suggest that these economic and deterrent variables, along with alternative types of crime, are bound together by common trends. In other words, it can be said that although these cointegrated variables will have short-run or temporal deviations from their long-run common trends, eventually forces will be set in motion that will bring all the variables into states of equilibrium. Universitatea SPIRU HARET 2013 Article PeerReviewed text en http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/17976/1/article-detail_id%3D8042 Lau, Evan and Siti Nur Zahara, Hamzah (2013) Criminometric Analysis Of Deterrence Hypothesis. Journal of Academic Research in Economics, 5 (3). pp. 349-360. ISSN 2066-0855
spellingShingle H Social Sciences (General)
Lau, Evan
Siti Nur Zahara, Hamzah
Criminometric Analysis Of Deterrence Hypothesis
title Criminometric Analysis Of Deterrence Hypothesis
title_full Criminometric Analysis Of Deterrence Hypothesis
title_fullStr Criminometric Analysis Of Deterrence Hypothesis
title_full_unstemmed Criminometric Analysis Of Deterrence Hypothesis
title_short Criminometric Analysis Of Deterrence Hypothesis
title_sort criminometric analysis of deterrence hypothesis
topic H Social Sciences (General)
url http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/17976/
http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/17976/1/article-detail_id%3D8042