Measuring Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Alternative Precursor To Economic Crises
This study constructs a factor-based model of business cycle identification for the Malaysian economy via the dynamic factor approach. Our central focus is to explore a factor-based business cycle indicator (BCI) that can serve as a good gauge for economic crises. The empirical finding is in harmony...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Academy of Economic Studies in Bucharest
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/16946/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/16946/1/Measuring%20Business%20Cycle%20Fluctuations%20%28abstract%29.pdf |
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| author | Puah, Chin Hong Shazali, Abu Mansor Liew, Venus Khim-Sen Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling |
| author_facet | Puah, Chin Hong Shazali, Abu Mansor Liew, Venus Khim-Sen Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling |
| author_sort | Puah, Chin Hong |
| building | UNIMAS Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | This study constructs a factor-based model of business cycle identification for the Malaysian economy via the dynamic factor approach. Our central focus is to explore a factor-based business cycle indicator (BCI) that can serve as a good gauge for economic crises. The empirical finding is in harmony with the envisaged objective; the constructed BCI produces satisfactory identification of business cycle turning points and statistically outperforms the national-owned composite leading indicator (CLI) in terms of predictive accuracy and forecasting performance. Therefore, we reckon that the constructed BCI can serve to identify the business climate and foretell approaching economic crises in a timely manner. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T06:51:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | unimas-16946 |
| institution | Universiti Malaysia Sarawak |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T06:51:21Z |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | Academy of Economic Studies in Bucharest |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | unimas-169462017-07-19T06:39:14Z http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/16946/ Measuring Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Alternative Precursor To Economic Crises Puah, Chin Hong Shazali, Abu Mansor Liew, Venus Khim-Sen Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling HB Economic Theory This study constructs a factor-based model of business cycle identification for the Malaysian economy via the dynamic factor approach. Our central focus is to explore a factor-based business cycle indicator (BCI) that can serve as a good gauge for economic crises. The empirical finding is in harmony with the envisaged objective; the constructed BCI produces satisfactory identification of business cycle turning points and statistically outperforms the national-owned composite leading indicator (CLI) in terms of predictive accuracy and forecasting performance. Therefore, we reckon that the constructed BCI can serve to identify the business climate and foretell approaching economic crises in a timely manner. Academy of Economic Studies in Bucharest 2016 Article PeerReviewed text en http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/16946/1/Measuring%20Business%20Cycle%20Fluctuations%20%28abstract%29.pdf Puah, Chin Hong and Shazali, Abu Mansor and Liew, Venus Khim-Sen and Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling (2016) Measuring Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Alternative Precursor To Economic Crises. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 50 (4). ISSN 1842–3264 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/315657303 |
| spellingShingle | HB Economic Theory Puah, Chin Hong Shazali, Abu Mansor Liew, Venus Khim-Sen Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling Measuring Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Alternative Precursor To Economic Crises |
| title | Measuring Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Alternative Precursor To Economic Crises |
| title_full | Measuring Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Alternative Precursor To Economic Crises |
| title_fullStr | Measuring Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Alternative Precursor To Economic Crises |
| title_full_unstemmed | Measuring Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Alternative Precursor To Economic Crises |
| title_short | Measuring Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Alternative Precursor To Economic Crises |
| title_sort | measuring business cycle fluctuations: an alternative precursor to economic crises |
| topic | HB Economic Theory |
| url | http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/16946/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/16946/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/16946/1/Measuring%20Business%20Cycle%20Fluctuations%20%28abstract%29.pdf |