Tackling macroeconomic precariousness: The role of the composite leading indicator
The present study explored the possibility of extending the leading indicator framework to establish a composite leading indicator (CLI) for the Cambodian economy. We established the CLI on the basis of a non-parametric approach originated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). We subje...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
International Information Institute Ltd.
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/14085/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/14085/1/Tackling-macroeconomic-precariousness-The-role-of-the-composite-leading-indicator_2016_Information-%28Japan%29.html |
| Summary: | The present study explored the possibility of extending the leading indicator framework to establish a composite leading indicator (CLI) for the Cambodian economy. We established the CLI on the basis of a non-parametric approach originated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). We subjected a great number of macroeconomic series to empirical scrutiny and settled on two prominent leading variables that ultimately molded a remarkable CLI that effectively tracked the precarious ebb and flow of the macroeconomic environment in Cambodia. Of note is that an average lead time of 7 months manifested great potential for CLI to evolve as a pragmatic means of near-term forecasting to prefigure the fluctuating business cycle. |
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