Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?

Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm’s body temperature (Tb ) affects its performance or ﬁtness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key – but often biologically unreasonable – assumptions underlying t...

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Main Authors:	Sinclair, Brent J., Marshall, Katie E., Sewell, Mary A., Levesque, Danielle L., Willett, Christopher S., Slotsbo, Stine, Yunwei, Dong, Harley, Christopher D. G., Marshall, David J., Helmuth, Brian S., Huey, Raymond B.
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS 2016
Subjects:	GE Environmental Sciences
Online Access:	http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/13667/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/13667/1/can%20we%20predict%20ectotherm%20responses%20to%20climate%20change%20%28abstract%29.pdf

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author	Sinclair, Brent J. Marshall, Katie E. Sewell, Mary A. Levesque, Danielle L. Willett, Christopher S. Slotsbo, Stine Yunwei, Dong Harley, Christopher D. G. Marshall, David J. Helmuth, Brian S. Huey, Raymond B.
author_facet	Sinclair, Brent J. Marshall, Katie E. Sewell, Mary A. Levesque, Danielle L. Willett, Christopher S. Slotsbo, Stine Yunwei, Dong Harley, Christopher D. G. Marshall, David J. Helmuth, Brian S. Huey, Raymond B.
author_sort	Sinclair, Brent J.
building	UNIMAS Institutional Repository
collection	Online Access
description	Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm’s body temperature (Tb ) affects its performance or ﬁtness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key – but often biologically unreasonable – assumptions underlying this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPCs are independent of previously experienced T b. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs. For example, rather than assuming that TPCs are ﬁxed during onto- geny, one can measure TPCs for each major life stage and incorporate these into stage-speciﬁc ecological models to reveal the life stage most likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Our over- all goal is to explicitly examine the assumptions underlying the integration of TPCs with T b ,to develop a framework within which empiricists can place their work within these limitations, and to facilitate the application of thermal physiology to understanding the biological implications of climate change.
first_indexed	2025-11-15T06:39:57Z
format	Article
id	unimas-13667
institution	Universiti Malaysia Sarawak
institution_category	Local University
language	English
last_indexed	2025-11-15T06:39:57Z
publishDate	2016
publisher	John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS
recordtype	eprints
repository_type	Digital Repository
spelling	unimas-136672016-10-04T06:59:31Z http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/13667/ Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures? Sinclair, Brent J. Marshall, Katie E. Sewell, Mary A. Levesque, Danielle L. Willett, Christopher S. Slotsbo, Stine Yunwei, Dong Harley, Christopher D. G. Marshall, David J. Helmuth, Brian S. Huey, Raymond B. GE Environmental Sciences Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm’s body temperature (Tb ) affects its performance or ﬁtness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key – but often biologically unreasonable – assumptions underlying this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPCs are independent of previously experienced T b. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs. For example, rather than assuming that TPCs are ﬁxed during onto- geny, one can measure TPCs for each major life stage and incorporate these into stage-speciﬁc ecological models to reveal the life stage most likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Our over- all goal is to explicitly examine the assumptions underlying the integration of TPCs with T b ,to develop a framework within which empiricists can place their work within these limitations, and to facilitate the application of thermal physiology to understanding the biological implications of climate change. John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS 2016 Article PeerReviewed text en http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/13667/1/can%20we%20predict%20ectotherm%20responses%20to%20climate%20change%20%28abstract%29.pdf Sinclair, Brent J. and Marshall, Katie E. and Sewell, Mary A. and Levesque, Danielle L. and Willett, Christopher S. and Slotsbo, Stine and Yunwei, Dong and Harley, Christopher D. G. and Marshall, David J. and Helmuth, Brian S. and Huey, Raymond B. (2016) Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures? Ecology Letters. ISSN 1461-0248 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12686/epdf doi: 10.1111/ele.12686
spellingShingle	GE Environmental Sciences Sinclair, Brent J. Marshall, Katie E. Sewell, Mary A. Levesque, Danielle L. Willett, Christopher S. Slotsbo, Stine Yunwei, Dong Harley, Christopher D. G. Marshall, David J. Helmuth, Brian S. Huey, Raymond B. Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?
title	Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?
title_full	Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?
title_fullStr	Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?
title_full_unstemmed	Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?
title_short	Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?
title_sort	can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?
topic	GE Environmental Sciences
url	http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/13667/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/13667/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/13667/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/13667/1/can%20we%20predict%20ectotherm%20responses%20to%20climate%20change%20%28abstract%29.pdf

Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?

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