Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market

This study attempts to investigate the fluctuations in the Malaysian property market and predict the early signals of property market vulnerability using the property cycle indicator (PCI) with data of monthly basis from 1991M1 to 2013M12 and the employment of the indicator construction method propo...

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Main Author: Kuek, Tai Hock
Format: Thesis
Language:English
Published: Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, (UNIMAS) 2015
Subjects:
Online Access:http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/10793/
http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/10793/1/Kuek.pdf
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author Kuek, Tai Hock
author_facet Kuek, Tai Hock
author_sort Kuek, Tai Hock
building UNIMAS Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description This study attempts to investigate the fluctuations in the Malaysian property market and predict the early signals of property market vulnerability using the property cycle indicator (PCI) with data of monthly basis from 1991M1 to 2013M12 and the employment of the indicator construction method proposed by National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The constructed PCI consists of six component series, namely, gross domestic product, consumer sentiment index, foreign direct investment, tourist arrival, domestic share price and the United States share price. Empirical results indicated that the movement of PCI is consistent in advance of Property Sales by Unit Transactions (PSU), suggesting that the PCI has a significant amount of signalling attributes against the PSU. This highlighted the potential ability of the leading indicator to predict the property market outlook using a non-parametric technique of indicator construction and information content from a macroeconomic perspective. Therefore, policymakers, property market players, and investors may consider the use of the property cycle indicator as an early signalling tool to predict the movement of the property market in Malaysia.
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spelling unimas-107932023-06-15T03:38:27Z http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/10793/ Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market Kuek, Tai Hock H Social Sciences (General) This study attempts to investigate the fluctuations in the Malaysian property market and predict the early signals of property market vulnerability using the property cycle indicator (PCI) with data of monthly basis from 1991M1 to 2013M12 and the employment of the indicator construction method proposed by National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The constructed PCI consists of six component series, namely, gross domestic product, consumer sentiment index, foreign direct investment, tourist arrival, domestic share price and the United States share price. Empirical results indicated that the movement of PCI is consistent in advance of Property Sales by Unit Transactions (PSU), suggesting that the PCI has a significant amount of signalling attributes against the PSU. This highlighted the potential ability of the leading indicator to predict the property market outlook using a non-parametric technique of indicator construction and information content from a macroeconomic perspective. Therefore, policymakers, property market players, and investors may consider the use of the property cycle indicator as an early signalling tool to predict the movement of the property market in Malaysia. Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, (UNIMAS) 2015 Thesis NonPeerReviewed text en http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/10793/1/Kuek.pdf Kuek, Tai Hock (2015) Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market. Masters thesis, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, (UNIMAS).
spellingShingle H Social Sciences (General)
Kuek, Tai Hock
Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market
title Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market
title_full Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market
title_fullStr Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market
title_full_unstemmed Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market
title_short Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market
title_sort property cycle index : an indicator to the malaysian property market
topic H Social Sciences (General)
url http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/10793/
http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/10793/1/Kuek.pdf