Short-Term forecasting of floating photovoltaic power generation using machine learning models

Floating photovoltaic (FPV) power generation requires accurate short-term forecasting to optimize operational efficiency and enhance grid integration. This study investigates the application of machine learning models for predicting FPV power generation using data from the Universiti Malaysia Pahang...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Mohd Herwan, Sulaiman, Mohd Shawal, Jadin, Zuriani, Mustaffa, Mohd Nurulakla, Mohd Azlan, Hamdan, Daniyal
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier B.V. 2024
Subjects:
Online Access:http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42923/
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42923/1/Short-Term%20forecasting%20of%20floating%20photovoltaic%20power%20generation%20using%20machine%20learning%20models.pdf
_version_ 1848826736107585536
author Mohd Herwan, Sulaiman
Mohd Shawal, Jadin
Zuriani, Mustaffa
Mohd Nurulakla, Mohd Azlan
Hamdan, Daniyal
author_facet Mohd Herwan, Sulaiman
Mohd Shawal, Jadin
Zuriani, Mustaffa
Mohd Nurulakla, Mohd Azlan
Hamdan, Daniyal
author_sort Mohd Herwan, Sulaiman
building UMP Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description Floating photovoltaic (FPV) power generation requires accurate short-term forecasting to optimize operational efficiency and enhance grid integration. This study investigates the application of machine learning models for predicting FPV power generation using data from the Universiti Malaysia Pahang Al-Sultan Abdullah (UMPSA) solar installation, which has a capacity of 157.20 kWp. Data were collected at 15-minute intervals from January 15 to January 21, 2024, encompassing nine input features such as ambient temperature, transient horizontal irradiation, daily horizontal irradiation, AC voltages, and AC currents for phases A, B, and C, with the total active power in kW as the target variable. The dataset was divided into a training set (first five days) and a testing set (remaining two days), and five machine learning models—Neural Networks (NN), Random Forest (RF), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—were employed. The results indicate that the Neural Networks model consistently outperforms the other machine learning algorithms in terms of predictive accuracy. These findings underscore the efficacy of machine learning techniques in forecasting FPV power generation, which has significant implications for enhancing the operational efficiency and grid integration of floating solar installations.
first_indexed 2025-11-15T03:49:33Z
format Article
id ump-42923
institution Universiti Malaysia Pahang
institution_category Local University
language English
last_indexed 2025-11-15T03:49:33Z
publishDate 2024
publisher Elsevier B.V.
recordtype eprints
repository_type Digital Repository
spelling ump-429232024-11-13T07:08:31Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42923/ Short-Term forecasting of floating photovoltaic power generation using machine learning models Mohd Herwan, Sulaiman Mohd Shawal, Jadin Zuriani, Mustaffa Mohd Nurulakla, Mohd Azlan Hamdan, Daniyal TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering Floating photovoltaic (FPV) power generation requires accurate short-term forecasting to optimize operational efficiency and enhance grid integration. This study investigates the application of machine learning models for predicting FPV power generation using data from the Universiti Malaysia Pahang Al-Sultan Abdullah (UMPSA) solar installation, which has a capacity of 157.20 kWp. Data were collected at 15-minute intervals from January 15 to January 21, 2024, encompassing nine input features such as ambient temperature, transient horizontal irradiation, daily horizontal irradiation, AC voltages, and AC currents for phases A, B, and C, with the total active power in kW as the target variable. The dataset was divided into a training set (first five days) and a testing set (remaining two days), and five machine learning models—Neural Networks (NN), Random Forest (RF), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—were employed. The results indicate that the Neural Networks model consistently outperforms the other machine learning algorithms in terms of predictive accuracy. These findings underscore the efficacy of machine learning techniques in forecasting FPV power generation, which has significant implications for enhancing the operational efficiency and grid integration of floating solar installations. Elsevier B.V. 2024-12 Article PeerReviewed pdf en cc_by_nc_4 http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42923/1/Short-Term%20forecasting%20of%20floating%20photovoltaic%20power%20generation%20using%20machine%20learning%20models.pdf Mohd Herwan, Sulaiman and Mohd Shawal, Jadin and Zuriani, Mustaffa and Mohd Nurulakla, Mohd Azlan and Hamdan, Daniyal (2024) Short-Term forecasting of floating photovoltaic power generation using machine learning models. Cleaner Energy Systems, 9 (100137). pp. 1-15. ISSN 2772-7831. (Published) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cles.2024.100137 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cles.2024.100137
spellingShingle TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Mohd Herwan, Sulaiman
Mohd Shawal, Jadin
Zuriani, Mustaffa
Mohd Nurulakla, Mohd Azlan
Hamdan, Daniyal
Short-Term forecasting of floating photovoltaic power generation using machine learning models
title Short-Term forecasting of floating photovoltaic power generation using machine learning models
title_full Short-Term forecasting of floating photovoltaic power generation using machine learning models
title_fullStr Short-Term forecasting of floating photovoltaic power generation using machine learning models
title_full_unstemmed Short-Term forecasting of floating photovoltaic power generation using machine learning models
title_short Short-Term forecasting of floating photovoltaic power generation using machine learning models
title_sort short-term forecasting of floating photovoltaic power generation using machine learning models
topic TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
url http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42923/
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42923/
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42923/
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42923/1/Short-Term%20forecasting%20of%20floating%20photovoltaic%20power%20generation%20using%20machine%20learning%20models.pdf