Modeling and forecasting coconut oil prices using time series data analysis based on box-jenkins methodology
Coconut oil is a significant global commodity, ranking 4th most valuable after palm oil. Its rising demand and market volatility have heightened the need for accurate price forecasting to guide investment decisions. This study uses the Box-Jenkins methodology to develop a prediction model for coconu...
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| Language: | English English |
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ICBE Publication
2024
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| Online Access: | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42849/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42849/1/e-Proceedings%2015th%20International%20Conference%20on%20Business%20Studies%20and%20Education%20%28ICBE%29%20Sept%202024.pdf http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42849/2/Modeling%20and%20forecasting%20coconut%20oil%20prices%20using%20time%20series%20data%20analysis%20based%20on%20box-jenkins%20methodology.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848826715987509248 |
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| author | Suhaila, Bahrom Anuar, Ab Rani Muhammad Hasri, Ibrahim |
| author_facet | Suhaila, Bahrom Anuar, Ab Rani Muhammad Hasri, Ibrahim |
| author_sort | Suhaila, Bahrom |
| building | UMP Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Coconut oil is a significant global commodity, ranking 4th most valuable after palm oil. Its rising demand and market volatility have heightened the need for accurate price forecasting to guide investment decisions. This study uses the Box-Jenkins methodology to develop a prediction model for coconut oil prices. Monthly secondary data
from the World Bank, covering January 1960 to March 2024, was analysed using R software. A Box-Cox transformation was applied to stabilize variance and address issues such as non-normality and heteroscedasticity in the data. After testing various ARIMA models, the ARIMA (0,1,0) model was identified as the most suitable for forecasting, with a MAPE of 27%, suggesting reasonable accuracy. The model provides a reliable tool for predicting future price trends. These findings are critical for industry stakeholders, enabling more informed decision-making and strategic planning by offering a clearer understanding of price fluctuations in the coconut oil market. This analysis contributes to optimizing investments and managing risks in a dynamic market environment. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T03:49:14Z |
| format | Conference or Workshop Item |
| id | ump-42849 |
| institution | Universiti Malaysia Pahang |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T03:49:14Z |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | ICBE Publication |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | ump-428492024-10-24T06:38:06Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42849/ Modeling and forecasting coconut oil prices using time series data analysis based on box-jenkins methodology Suhaila, Bahrom Anuar, Ab Rani Muhammad Hasri, Ibrahim QA Mathematics Coconut oil is a significant global commodity, ranking 4th most valuable after palm oil. Its rising demand and market volatility have heightened the need for accurate price forecasting to guide investment decisions. This study uses the Box-Jenkins methodology to develop a prediction model for coconut oil prices. Monthly secondary data from the World Bank, covering January 1960 to March 2024, was analysed using R software. A Box-Cox transformation was applied to stabilize variance and address issues such as non-normality and heteroscedasticity in the data. After testing various ARIMA models, the ARIMA (0,1,0) model was identified as the most suitable for forecasting, with a MAPE of 27%, suggesting reasonable accuracy. The model provides a reliable tool for predicting future price trends. These findings are critical for industry stakeholders, enabling more informed decision-making and strategic planning by offering a clearer understanding of price fluctuations in the coconut oil market. This analysis contributes to optimizing investments and managing risks in a dynamic market environment. ICBE Publication 2024-09 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42849/1/e-Proceedings%2015th%20International%20Conference%20on%20Business%20Studies%20and%20Education%20%28ICBE%29%20Sept%202024.pdf pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42849/2/Modeling%20and%20forecasting%20coconut%20oil%20prices%20using%20time%20series%20data%20analysis%20based%20on%20box-jenkins%20methodology.pdf Suhaila, Bahrom and Anuar, Ab Rani and Muhammad Hasri, Ibrahim (2024) Modeling and forecasting coconut oil prices using time series data analysis based on box-jenkins methodology. In: e-Proceedings 15th International Conference on Business Studies and Education (ICBE). 15th International Conference on Business Studies and Education (ICBE) , 28th & 29th September 2024 , Virtual. pp. 1-10.. ISSN 2785-9479 (Published) |
| spellingShingle | QA Mathematics Suhaila, Bahrom Anuar, Ab Rani Muhammad Hasri, Ibrahim Modeling and forecasting coconut oil prices using time series data analysis based on box-jenkins methodology |
| title | Modeling and forecasting coconut oil prices using time series data analysis based on box-jenkins methodology |
| title_full | Modeling and forecasting coconut oil prices using time series data analysis based on box-jenkins methodology |
| title_fullStr | Modeling and forecasting coconut oil prices using time series data analysis based on box-jenkins methodology |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling and forecasting coconut oil prices using time series data analysis based on box-jenkins methodology |
| title_short | Modeling and forecasting coconut oil prices using time series data analysis based on box-jenkins methodology |
| title_sort | modeling and forecasting coconut oil prices using time series data analysis based on box-jenkins methodology |
| topic | QA Mathematics |
| url | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42849/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42849/1/e-Proceedings%2015th%20International%20Conference%20on%20Business%20Studies%20and%20Education%20%28ICBE%29%20Sept%202024.pdf http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42849/2/Modeling%20and%20forecasting%20coconut%20oil%20prices%20using%20time%20series%20data%20analysis%20based%20on%20box-jenkins%20methodology.pdf |