Predicting forest fire spots using nonparametric predictive inference with parametric copula: Malaysia case study
Forest fire causes major and expensive damage to a country, including ecological, economic and anthropological aspects. Still, there were a lot of uncertainties and knowledge regarding forest fire management, especially in small fire detection. Many past studies throughout the decades, in machine le...
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| Format: | Conference or Workshop Item |
| Language: | English English |
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AIP Publishing
2024
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| Online Access: | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42471/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42471/1/Predicting%20forest%20fire%20spots%20using%20nonparametric%20predictive%20inference%20with%20parametric%20copula%20-%20Malaysia%20case%20study.pdf http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42471/2/Predicting%20forest%20fire%20spots%20using%20nonparametric%20predictive%20inference%20with%20parametric%20copula.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848826619664269312 |
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| author | Noryanti, Muhammad Amirah Hazwani, Roslin Hanita, Daud Kadir, Evizal Abdul Maharani, Warih |
| author_facet | Noryanti, Muhammad Amirah Hazwani, Roslin Hanita, Daud Kadir, Evizal Abdul Maharani, Warih |
| author_sort | Noryanti, Muhammad |
| building | UMP Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Forest fire causes major and expensive damage to a country, including ecological, economic and anthropological aspects. Still, there were a lot of uncertainties and knowledge regarding forest fire management, especially in small fire detection. Many past studies throughout the decades, in machine learning approaches, were non-generalizable and needed more accuracy. Therefore, this study aims to introduce nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) with a parametric copula, which considers the dependence structure to predict the forest fire hotspots using the coordinate – longitude and latitude. The proposed method was theorized to perform better than the current models and be able to generalize in other regions with the same parameters. A case study of Malaysia was chosen as there was a lack of mathematical and statistical solutions in forest fire management in this country. The four copulae integrated with the proposed method generated imprecise probabilities with a minimal gap showing the forecasting accuracy. Amongst, Gumbel and Normal copula parameters displayed the best imprecise probabilities of forest fire occurrences for the Malaysia location due to the lowest differences. In conclusion, the NPI can be an alternative method to predict forest fire hotspots. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T03:47:42Z |
| format | Conference or Workshop Item |
| id | ump-42471 |
| institution | Universiti Malaysia Pahang |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T03:47:42Z |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | AIP Publishing |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | ump-424712024-09-20T01:48:11Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42471/ Predicting forest fire spots using nonparametric predictive inference with parametric copula: Malaysia case study Noryanti, Muhammad Amirah Hazwani, Roslin Hanita, Daud Kadir, Evizal Abdul Maharani, Warih QA Mathematics Forest fire causes major and expensive damage to a country, including ecological, economic and anthropological aspects. Still, there were a lot of uncertainties and knowledge regarding forest fire management, especially in small fire detection. Many past studies throughout the decades, in machine learning approaches, were non-generalizable and needed more accuracy. Therefore, this study aims to introduce nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) with a parametric copula, which considers the dependence structure to predict the forest fire hotspots using the coordinate – longitude and latitude. The proposed method was theorized to perform better than the current models and be able to generalize in other regions with the same parameters. A case study of Malaysia was chosen as there was a lack of mathematical and statistical solutions in forest fire management in this country. The four copulae integrated with the proposed method generated imprecise probabilities with a minimal gap showing the forecasting accuracy. Amongst, Gumbel and Normal copula parameters displayed the best imprecise probabilities of forest fire occurrences for the Malaysia location due to the lowest differences. In conclusion, the NPI can be an alternative method to predict forest fire hotspots. AIP Publishing 2024 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42471/1/Predicting%20forest%20fire%20spots%20using%20nonparametric%20predictive%20inference%20with%20parametric%20copula%20-%20Malaysia%20case%20study.pdf pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42471/2/Predicting%20forest%20fire%20spots%20using%20nonparametric%20predictive%20inference%20with%20parametric%20copula.pdf Noryanti, Muhammad and Amirah Hazwani, Roslin and Hanita, Daud and Kadir, Evizal Abdul and Maharani, Warih (2024) Predicting forest fire spots using nonparametric predictive inference with parametric copula: Malaysia case study. In: AIP Conference Proceedings. 30th National Symposium on Mathematical Sciences (SKSM30) , 26–27 September 2023 , Kedah, Malaysia. pp. 1-8., 3189 (1). ISBN 978-0-7354-5014-1 (Published) https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0224342 |
| spellingShingle | QA Mathematics Noryanti, Muhammad Amirah Hazwani, Roslin Hanita, Daud Kadir, Evizal Abdul Maharani, Warih Predicting forest fire spots using nonparametric predictive inference with parametric copula: Malaysia case study |
| title | Predicting forest fire spots using nonparametric predictive inference with parametric copula: Malaysia case study |
| title_full | Predicting forest fire spots using nonparametric predictive inference with parametric copula: Malaysia case study |
| title_fullStr | Predicting forest fire spots using nonparametric predictive inference with parametric copula: Malaysia case study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting forest fire spots using nonparametric predictive inference with parametric copula: Malaysia case study |
| title_short | Predicting forest fire spots using nonparametric predictive inference with parametric copula: Malaysia case study |
| title_sort | predicting forest fire spots using nonparametric predictive inference with parametric copula: malaysia case study |
| topic | QA Mathematics |
| url | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42471/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42471/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42471/1/Predicting%20forest%20fire%20spots%20using%20nonparametric%20predictive%20inference%20with%20parametric%20copula%20-%20Malaysia%20case%20study.pdf http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/42471/2/Predicting%20forest%20fire%20spots%20using%20nonparametric%20predictive%20inference%20with%20parametric%20copula.pdf |