Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak
COVID-19 is a highly transmissible epidemic that has impacted worldwide. It became important to study the transmission pattern and forecast the changes in the pandemic curve with the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Epidemiological parameters of the Susceptible-Infected-Rem...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Conference or Workshop Item |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2022
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| Online Access: | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/36663/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/36663/1/Epidemiological%20parameter%20estimation%20of%20sird%20model%20for%20covid-19%20outbreak.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848825052001206272 |
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| author | Muhammad Fahmi, Ahmad Zuber Norhayati, Rosli Noryanti, Muhammad |
| author_facet | Muhammad Fahmi, Ahmad Zuber Norhayati, Rosli Noryanti, Muhammad |
| author_sort | Muhammad Fahmi, Ahmad Zuber |
| building | UMP Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | COVID-19 is a highly transmissible epidemic that has impacted worldwide. It became important to study the transmission pattern and forecast the changes in the pandemic curve with the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Epidemiological parameters of the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model are widely used in explaining the characteristics and behavior of the disease spreading. The epidemiological parameter of the model changes throughout the epidemic due to external factors such as NPIs enforcement, public reactions to the control measures, and improvements in healthcare facilities. This paper is devoted to the parameter estimation of the SIRD model using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method of the Metropolis Hasting algorithm. The data from Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia are used and the dynamic behavior of the COVID-19 outbreak in these three countries is simulated. The results show the parameter changing due to the NPI enforced influencing the trend of the pandemic curve. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T03:22:47Z |
| format | Conference or Workshop Item |
| id | ump-36663 |
| institution | Universiti Malaysia Pahang |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T03:22:47Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | ump-366632023-01-31T09:52:03Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/36663/ Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak Muhammad Fahmi, Ahmad Zuber Norhayati, Rosli Noryanti, Muhammad Q Science (General) QA Mathematics RA Public aspects of medicine COVID-19 is a highly transmissible epidemic that has impacted worldwide. It became important to study the transmission pattern and forecast the changes in the pandemic curve with the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Epidemiological parameters of the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model are widely used in explaining the characteristics and behavior of the disease spreading. The epidemiological parameter of the model changes throughout the epidemic due to external factors such as NPIs enforcement, public reactions to the control measures, and improvements in healthcare facilities. This paper is devoted to the parameter estimation of the SIRD model using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method of the Metropolis Hasting algorithm. The data from Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia are used and the dynamic behavior of the COVID-19 outbreak in these three countries is simulated. The results show the parameter changing due to the NPI enforced influencing the trend of the pandemic curve. 2022-11-15 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/36663/1/Epidemiological%20parameter%20estimation%20of%20sird%20model%20for%20covid-19%20outbreak.pdf Muhammad Fahmi, Ahmad Zuber and Norhayati, Rosli and Noryanti, Muhammad (2022) Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak. In: The 6th National Conference for Postgraduate Research (NCON-PGR 2022) , 15 November 2022 , Virtual Conference, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Malaysia. p. 55.. (Published) https://ncon-pgr.ump.edu.my/index.php/en/?option=com_fileman&view=file&routed=1&name=E-BOOK%20NCON%202022%20.pdf&folder=E-BOOK%20NCON%202022&container=fileman-files |
| spellingShingle | Q Science (General) QA Mathematics RA Public aspects of medicine Muhammad Fahmi, Ahmad Zuber Norhayati, Rosli Noryanti, Muhammad Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak |
| title | Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak |
| title_full | Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak |
| title_fullStr | Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak |
| title_full_unstemmed | Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak |
| title_short | Epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak |
| title_sort | epidemiological parameter estimation of sird model for covid-19 outbreak |
| topic | Q Science (General) QA Mathematics RA Public aspects of medicine |
| url | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/36663/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/36663/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/36663/1/Epidemiological%20parameter%20estimation%20of%20sird%20model%20for%20covid-19%20outbreak.pdf |