A study on private vehicle demand forecasting based on Box-Jenkins method
Demand forecasting has become a priority to an organisation in order to manage their operations. Literature reviews on car demand forecasting are rather limited and many methods used are confined to static approaches. Malaysia is a developing country and expected to be classified as a developed coun...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Conference or Workshop Item |
| Language: | English English |
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AIP Publishing
2019
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| Online Access: | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35122/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35122/1/2019%20AIP%20A%20study%20on%20private%20vehicle%20demand%20forecasting%20based%20on%20BoxJenkins%20method%20A.pdf http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35122/7/A%20study%20on%20private%20vehicle%20demand%20forecasting%20based%20on%20Box-Jenkins%20method.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848824695703470080 |
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| author | Abu, Noratikah Ismail, Zuhaimy |
| author_facet | Abu, Noratikah Ismail, Zuhaimy |
| author_sort | Abu, Noratikah |
| building | UMP Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Demand forecasting has become a priority to an organisation in order to manage their operations. Literature reviews on car demand forecasting are rather limited and many methods used are confined to static approaches. Malaysia is a developing country and expected to be classified as a developed country in 2020. We envisage that the study on vehicle demand forecasting will yield fruitful results. Nevertheless, a proper study on private car demand forecasting is still limited due to heavy data requirements. In this study, we propose the development of suitable forecasting model for private vehicle demand in Malaysia based on the actual data from January 2000 until December 2009. The Box-Jenkins methodology will be used to analyse and forecast Malaysian private vehicle demand. Box-Jenkins method is by far one of the most efficient forecasting techniques, especially when dealing with univariate time series data. Standard procedure of identification, estimation and diagnostic checking are employed. Based on the diagnostic checking, we consider the seasonal ARIMA model and by using Minitab software, results show that SARIMA(2,1,0)(200)12 model is most suitable for forecasting. The results show that the Box-Jenkins method is applicable to forecast private vehicle demand in Malaysia. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T03:17:07Z |
| format | Conference or Workshop Item |
| id | ump-35122 |
| institution | Universiti Malaysia Pahang |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T03:17:07Z |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publisher | AIP Publishing |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | ump-351222022-11-01T08:23:44Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35122/ A study on private vehicle demand forecasting based on Box-Jenkins method Abu, Noratikah Ismail, Zuhaimy QA Mathematics Demand forecasting has become a priority to an organisation in order to manage their operations. Literature reviews on car demand forecasting are rather limited and many methods used are confined to static approaches. Malaysia is a developing country and expected to be classified as a developed country in 2020. We envisage that the study on vehicle demand forecasting will yield fruitful results. Nevertheless, a proper study on private car demand forecasting is still limited due to heavy data requirements. In this study, we propose the development of suitable forecasting model for private vehicle demand in Malaysia based on the actual data from January 2000 until December 2009. The Box-Jenkins methodology will be used to analyse and forecast Malaysian private vehicle demand. Box-Jenkins method is by far one of the most efficient forecasting techniques, especially when dealing with univariate time series data. Standard procedure of identification, estimation and diagnostic checking are employed. Based on the diagnostic checking, we consider the seasonal ARIMA model and by using Minitab software, results show that SARIMA(2,1,0)(200)12 model is most suitable for forecasting. The results show that the Box-Jenkins method is applicable to forecast private vehicle demand in Malaysia. AIP Publishing 2019-01-11 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35122/1/2019%20AIP%20A%20study%20on%20private%20vehicle%20demand%20forecasting%20based%20on%20BoxJenkins%20method%20A.pdf pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35122/7/A%20study%20on%20private%20vehicle%20demand%20forecasting%20based%20on%20Box-Jenkins%20method.pdf Abu, Noratikah and Ismail, Zuhaimy (2019) A study on private vehicle demand forecasting based on Box-Jenkins method. In: AIP Conference Proceedings; 3rd International Conference on Automotive Innovation Green Energy Vehicle, AiGEV 2018 , 25 - 26 July 2018 , Kuantan, Pahang. 020005-1., 2059 (020005). ISSN 0094-243X ISBN 978-073541787-8 (Published) https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5085948 |
| spellingShingle | QA Mathematics Abu, Noratikah Ismail, Zuhaimy A study on private vehicle demand forecasting based on Box-Jenkins method |
| title | A study on private vehicle demand forecasting based on Box-Jenkins method |
| title_full | A study on private vehicle demand forecasting based on Box-Jenkins method |
| title_fullStr | A study on private vehicle demand forecasting based on Box-Jenkins method |
| title_full_unstemmed | A study on private vehicle demand forecasting based on Box-Jenkins method |
| title_short | A study on private vehicle demand forecasting based on Box-Jenkins method |
| title_sort | study on private vehicle demand forecasting based on box-jenkins method |
| topic | QA Mathematics |
| url | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35122/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35122/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35122/1/2019%20AIP%20A%20study%20on%20private%20vehicle%20demand%20forecasting%20based%20on%20BoxJenkins%20method%20A.pdf http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35122/7/A%20study%20on%20private%20vehicle%20demand%20forecasting%20based%20on%20Box-Jenkins%20method.pdf |