Transmissibility prediction of coronavirus disease (covid-19) outbreak in early stages
The Covid-19 pandemic is still ongoing around the world. This study aims to predict the reproduction number, R0 for Covid-19 to measure the infectious level of this disease to the general population. To predict the reproduction number, a prediction method using the Probability Mass function is used...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Conference or Workshop Item |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2021
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/34220/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/34220/1/Transmissibility%20prediction%20of%20coronavirus%20disease%20%28covid-19%29%20outbreak%20in%20early%20stages.CITREX2021..pdf |
| Summary: | The Covid-19 pandemic is still ongoing around the world. This study aims to predict the reproduction number, R0 for Covid-19 to measure the infectious level of this disease to the general population. To predict the reproduction number, a prediction method using the Probability Mass function is used with the dataset for the Covid-19 disease. This result has been divided into the first wave, second wave and third wave which suggest that the R0 is increased which correlate with the new strain of Covid-19 mutation “D614G” that is more infectious compared to the first wave strain. In a nutshell, with the R0 has been predicted, a containment plan is possible to curb the disease from spreading even further to the general population. |
|---|