New tourism product forecasting - A study of different potential markets
Mushrooming of new tourism products in Malaysia and their shutdown in the short term are the sign of ineffective forecast. Besides, no new development in tourism products causes the decline of the number of visitors to the attractions. This study proposes an application of a grey Bass diffusion mode...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Conference or Workshop Item |
| Language: | English English |
| Published: |
AIP Publishing
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/32901/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/32901/1/Matctech.pdf http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/32901/7/New%20tourism%20product%20forecasting%20-%20A%20study%20of%20different%20potential%20markets.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848824136786247680 |
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| author | Noratikah, Abu Sarah, Mohd Khaidi Noryanti, Muhammad |
| author_facet | Noratikah, Abu Sarah, Mohd Khaidi Noryanti, Muhammad |
| author_sort | Noratikah, Abu |
| building | UMP Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Mushrooming of new tourism products in Malaysia and their shutdown in the short term are the sign of ineffective forecast. Besides, no new development in tourism products causes the decline of the number of visitors to the attractions. This study proposes an application of a grey Bass diffusion model to forecast the new tourism product using different market potential value. A potential market can provide valuable information for a good forecast. From the managements’ perspective, proper planning and development is done to maintain the places based on the forecast. Grey Bass diffusion model, a popular model in handling forecast of a new product with limited data, is expected to forecast two ecotourism resorts, Tanah Aina Fahad and Tanah Aina Farrah Soraya using different market potential value. Yearly data from 2014 until 2018 from both tourism products are collected. The values of potential markets are calculated from the percentage number of visitors to Raub district since the new tourism products are located in Raub, Pahang. This study indicates that different market potential give significant impact on the accurate forecast. The closer the value of potential market calculated from percentage to the actual value, the higher the accuracy of the forecast. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T03:08:14Z |
| format | Conference or Workshop Item |
| id | ump-32901 |
| institution | Universiti Malaysia Pahang |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T03:08:14Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | AIP Publishing |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | ump-329012022-03-14T08:42:37Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/32901/ New tourism product forecasting - A study of different potential markets Noratikah, Abu Sarah, Mohd Khaidi Noryanti, Muhammad QA Mathematics Mushrooming of new tourism products in Malaysia and their shutdown in the short term are the sign of ineffective forecast. Besides, no new development in tourism products causes the decline of the number of visitors to the attractions. This study proposes an application of a grey Bass diffusion model to forecast the new tourism product using different market potential value. A potential market can provide valuable information for a good forecast. From the managements’ perspective, proper planning and development is done to maintain the places based on the forecast. Grey Bass diffusion model, a popular model in handling forecast of a new product with limited data, is expected to forecast two ecotourism resorts, Tanah Aina Fahad and Tanah Aina Farrah Soraya using different market potential value. Yearly data from 2014 until 2018 from both tourism products are collected. The values of potential markets are calculated from the percentage number of visitors to Raub district since the new tourism products are located in Raub, Pahang. This study indicates that different market potential give significant impact on the accurate forecast. The closer the value of potential market calculated from percentage to the actual value, the higher the accuracy of the forecast. AIP Publishing 2021 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/32901/1/Matctech.pdf pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/32901/7/New%20tourism%20product%20forecasting%20-%20A%20study%20of%20different%20potential%20markets.pdf Noratikah, Abu and Sarah, Mohd Khaidi and Noryanti, Muhammad (2021) New tourism product forecasting - A study of different potential markets. In: AIP Conference Proceedings; International Conference on Mathematical Sciences and Technology 2020: Sustainable Development of Mathematics and Mathematics in Sustainability Revolution, MATHTECH 2020 , 8 - 10 December 2020 , Penang, Malaysia. pp. 1-9., 2423 (070001). ISSN 0094-243X ISBN 9780735441668 (Published) https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0076065 |
| spellingShingle | QA Mathematics Noratikah, Abu Sarah, Mohd Khaidi Noryanti, Muhammad New tourism product forecasting - A study of different potential markets |
| title | New tourism product forecasting - A study of different potential markets |
| title_full | New tourism product forecasting - A study of different potential markets |
| title_fullStr | New tourism product forecasting - A study of different potential markets |
| title_full_unstemmed | New tourism product forecasting - A study of different potential markets |
| title_short | New tourism product forecasting - A study of different potential markets |
| title_sort | new tourism product forecasting - a study of different potential markets |
| topic | QA Mathematics |
| url | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/32901/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/32901/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/32901/1/Matctech.pdf http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/32901/7/New%20tourism%20product%20forecasting%20-%20A%20study%20of%20different%20potential%20markets.pdf |